Symbols

Will the Tesla earnings report be good

7/18/2025 07:05am

``` The deep research logic is organized as follows: Okay, let's tackle this question about Tesla's upcoming earnings report. The user is asking if the report will be good. First, I need to check the references provided to gather all relevant data. Looking at the references, the earnings release date is July 23, 2025, for Q1 2025, after market close . That's the key date. Now, the user is interested in whether the report will be good, so I need to assess the expectations and recent analyst forecasts. From the references, there are several analyst estimates. GLJ Research expects Q1 deliveries of 352,700, which is below the consensus of 390,300 and lower than Q1 2024's 386,800 . Zacks Research lowered their EPS estimate to $0.57 from $0.59 . JPMorgan also cut their EPS forecast to $0.40 and lowered the price target . UBS has a more pessimistic view, projecting EPS of $2.02 for the year, which is 30% below consensus . There's also a company-compiled consensus from Tesla itself, showing analysts expecting 377,592 deliveries . However, other sources like FactSet have higher estimates around 407,900 . The market is anticipating a decline in deliveries and revenue, with some analysts projecting a drop in gross margin and EPS . The user is into US Tech stocks and has a moderate risk tolerance, so they might be looking for a balanced view. The earnings report's impact on stock price will depend on whether Tesla beats or misses these lowered expectations. The consensus seems to lean towards a potential miss, which could pressure the stock further. However, there are some bulls like Stifel maintaining a buy rating . I need to structure the answer with a clear conclusion first, then break down the analysis into sections like delivery expectations, financial metrics, and market context. Using tables to present the data will make it clearer. Also, since the user prefers technical analysis, mentioning the stock's recent performance and price targets could be relevant. Make sure to cite all sources properly and include the visualization for the earnings release date. The conclusion should summarize the likelihood of the report being good based on the data, highlighting the risks and potential upside. Keep the language professional but engaging, using emojis to make it more approachable. ``` ### 🚨 **Conclusion** 🚨 **Tesla’s Q1 2025 earnings report is unlikely to be “good” in the short term**, as analysts widely anticipate a decline in deliveries, revenue, and profitability compared to both Q4 2024 and Q1 2024. However, the report could still present long-term opportunities if Tesla demonstrates progress on its next-generation models (e.g., CyberCab, sub-$30K vehicle) and China market expansion. Let’s dive into the data. --- ### 📊 **Key Data & Analysis** 📊 #### 1. **Q1 2025 Delivery Expectations** Analysts project a **year-over-year (YoY) decline** in Tesla’s Q1 2025 deliveries, with estimates ranging from **352,700 to 377,592 units** . This represents a **7-10% drop** from Q1 2024’s 386,800 units . The consensus estimate is **377,592 units** , but several firms (e.g., GLJ, UBS) have lowered their forecasts due to weaker-than-expected demand and production challenges . | Metric | Q1 2025 Estimate | Q1 2024 Actual | YoY Change | |-------------------------|-------------------|-----------------|------------| | Deliveries | 352,700–377,592 | 386,800 | -7% to -9% | | Revenue | $22.6B–$23.08B | $25.7B | -10% to -12% | | EPS | $0.40–$0.57 | $0.66 | -14% to -40% | #### 2. **Financial Metrics & Profitability** - **Revenue**: Analysts expect Q1 2025 revenue to drop to **$22.6B–$23.08B**, marking the **lowest quarterly revenue in a year** . - **Gross Margin**: Projected to decline to **17.6%**, down from Q4 2024’s 20.2% . - **EPS**: Estimates range from **$0.40 (JPMorgan)** to **$0.57 (Zacks)**, with a consensus of **$0.46** . #### 3. **Market Context & Risks** - **Demand Concerns**: Tesla faces headwinds from **brand reputation risks** (e.g., Elon Musk’s political ties) and **competition** from traditional automakers (e.g., Ford, GM) . - **Production Delays**: Delays in launching the **CyberCab** and **sub-$30K model** could further pressure margins . - **Valuation**: Tesla’s stock trades at a **PEG ratio of 5.86**, above the industry average of 0.79 . --- ### 📉 **Why the Report Might Disappoint** 📉 1. **Lower Deliveries**: If Tesla reports below the consensus of **377,592 units**, it could trigger a **5-10% stock drop** . 2. **Profit Miss**: A lower-than-expected EPS (e.g., <$0.46) could extend Tesla’s streak of **missing earnings estimates** (3 out of 4 quarters) . 3. **Valuation Pressure**: With a **$714.5B market cap**, any miss could amplify concerns about Tesla’s **high P/E ratio (108.9x)** . --- ### 🚀 **Why the Report Could Surprise** 🚀 1. **China Growth**: Sequential improvement in **vehicle insurance registrations** (+15% YoY in Q1 2025) suggests potential upside in China . 2. **New Models**: Early adoption of the **CyberCab** or **Model Q** could boost future quarters’ delivery forecasts . 3. **Cost Cuts**: Tesla’s **$10B+ cost-cutting plan** (announced in 2024) might start showing benefits in Q1 2025 . --- ### 📊 **Final Take** 📊 Tesla’s Q1 2025 earnings report is **likely to be mixed**, with short-term risks outweighing long-term opportunities. However, the report could set the stage for **strategic pivots** (e.g., accelerating affordable model production) that align with the user’s interest in **US Tech innovation** and **short-term market dynamics**. Stay vigilant for **post-earnings price volatility**! 🚨