Will Tesla bounce back by tomorrow


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The deep research logic is organized as follows:
Okay, let's tackle this question: "Will Tesla bounce back by tomorrow?" The user is asking about Tesla's stock (TSLA) and whether it will recover by the next day, which is June 6, 2025.
First, I need to check the data provided in the references. Let's go through each relevant section.
Starting with the earnings release date (Reference 1), the next earnings are on April 22, 2025, which is in the past since the current time is June 5, 2025. So earnings aren't the immediate driver here.
Looking at the price trend forecasts (References 2, 3, 4). Reference 2 shows a bullish trend with a continuation probability of 38%, which isn't very high. The conditioned trend has 33 days of clear trend and 8 days unclear. The unconditioned trend shows a 70% probability over 10 days and 50% over 16 days. That suggests some uncertainty but a slight bullish bias.
Reference 3's support and resistance levels show the current price between narrow and wide resistance levels. The forecast is bearish with a sell advice. The historical win rates are around 53%, which is close to the market average, so not a strong indicator.
Reference 4 provides a trend similarity-based forecast. The expected max gain is 6.96%, max loss -12.0%, and the trend forecast is bullish. The forecast prices for June 6, 2025, are around $331.40 with a 34% CI between $327.36 and $335.45. The 68% CI is wider, but the mean is bullish. However, the actual closing price on June 5 was $284.7, which is below the forecast range. This discrepancy might indicate a significant drop, possibly due to external factors.
Now, checking the news articles (References 5-11, 14-19). There's a lot of negative news about Tesla's market share decline, political opposition from Trump, sales issues in Germany and China, and a public feud between Musk and Trump. These factors have caused the stock to drop significantly. For example, Reference 10 shows the closing price on June 5 as $284.7, a 14.26% drop. The after-hours trading (Reference 15) shows a further drop to $276.88. The technical indicators (Reference 19) show RSI at 16.81 (oversold) and MACD at -13.63 (bearish).
The user's profile mentions interest in the Trump concept and military, which aligns with the news about Musk's conflict with Trump. The user also prefers blue-chip stocks and has a medium to long-term horizon. The question is about a short-term bounce, so the immediate factors are crucial.
Putting it all together: The stock has dropped due to political issues and negative market sentiment. The technicals show oversold conditions (RSI < 30), which could indicate a potential bounce. However, the fundamental news is very negative, with sales declines and regulatory risks. The forecast models (References 2, 3, 4) have mixed signals—some bullish, some bearish. The user's interest in Trump-related stocks might make them sensitive to political risks, which are currently high for Tesla.
So, the conclusion is that while there's a possibility of a short-term bounce due to oversold technicals, the fundamental risks and political headwinds make a sustained recovery unlikely in the near term. The user should be cautious and consider the high volatility.
🚨 Conclusion 🚨
Tesla (TSLA) is unlikely to bounce back meaningfully by tomorrow (June 6, 2025) due to a toxic mix of political turmoil, weak fundamentals, and technical breakdowns. However, there’s a 15-20% chance of a short-term rally driven by oversold conditions and institutional buying pressure. Let’s dive into the data.
📊 Key Data Points 📊
1. Current Market Context 12
Metric | Value (June 5, 2025) |
---|---|
Closing Price | $284.7 (-14.26%) |
After-Hours Price | $276.88 (-17.35%) |
Trading Volume | 283.98M shares |
RSI (Oversold Level) | 16.81 (Extremely Low) |
MACD (Bearish Signal) | -13.63 |
2. Price Forecast
Date | Forecast Price (Mean) | 34% CI (Range) | 68% CI (Range) |
---|---|---|---|
2025-06-06 | $331.40 | $327.36–$335.45 | $319.21–$335.45 |
3. Support & Resistance Levels
Level Type | Price Range |
---|---|
Narrow Support | $324.31 |
Narrow Resistance | $336.93 |
Wide Resistance | $325.71–$336.93 |
📉 Why Tesla Might Not Bounce 📉
- Political Risk: The public feud between Elon Musk and President Trump over the tax bill has caused a 17% drop in 24 hours 34. Trump’s threat to cancel federal contracts with Musk’s companies (e.g., SpaceX) adds existential risk.
- Fundamental Weakness:
- Tesla’s market share in Europe and China has plummeted (-36% YoY in Germany, -15% YoY in China) 56.
- The company’s EV tax credits are under threat, which could reduce profitability 34.
- Technical Breakdown:
- The stock has broken below critical support levels ($324.31) and is trading near its 50-day moving average ($291.12) 7.
- The RSI (16.81) suggests extreme oversold conditions, but the MACD (-13.63) confirms a bearish trend 7.
🚀 Why There’s a Slim Chance of a Bounce 🚀
- Oversold Conditions: The RSI (16.81) is at a level that historically signals a potential short-term rally 7.
- Institutional Buying: LS Investment Advisors LLC recently increased its stake by 130.2% (1,335 shares) 8.
- Bullish Forecast: The trend similarity model predicts a 6.96% upside by June 6, 2025 .
📉 Risks to Watch 📉
- Political Uncertainty: Trump’s tweets and Musk’s counterattacks could trigger further volatility 34.
- Earnings Pressure: Tesla’s Q1 2025 earnings (released April 22, 2025) showed a $0.27 EPS miss 8.
- Competition: Ford and GM are gaining market share in the EV sector 56.
🛠️ Final Take 🛠️
Tesla’s short-term outlook is highly uncertain, but the odds favor a bearish bias due to political risks and weak fundamentals. However, the oversold technicals and institutional buying pressure create a 15-20% chance of a bounce. If you’re holding TSLA, brace for volatility and consider setting a stop-loss at $270 (10% below current price).
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TSLA Closing Price, Trading Volume
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