Will SNAP stock beat upcoming earnings on July 30th?

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle this question about whether SNAP stock will beat its upcoming earnings on July 30th. First, I need to check the provided references and background information to gather all relevant data points.

Starting with the references, there's a lot of information about SNAP's Q2 2025 earnings. The latest report period is 2025Q1, but the user is asking about Q2, which is upcoming. The estimates for Q2 2025 show an EPS of -0.16 and revenue of $1.35 billion. However, Edgewater Research mentioned that the consensus revenue estimate of $1.343 billion is too low, and they expect $1.362 billion. This suggests that SNAP might beat the revenue estimate but possibly meet the EPS estimate since they've beaten EPS in all eight recent quarters.

Looking at the news articles, there's optimism from Edgewater Research about SNAP's Direct Response advertising progress. They believe the bar is low, which could mean SNAP has a higher chance of beating estimates. However, there are also risks mentioned, like macroeconomic concerns and a lawsuit from Utah, which might impact the stock price but not necessarily the earnings directly.

Wells Fargo raised their price target to $11, citing expectations for accelerated revenue growth. This indicates some analyst confidence. On the other hand, there's a lawsuit from Apple regarding a former employee stealing trade secrets, which could be a distraction but might not affect the earnings report immediately.

The user also provided some historical data, like SNAP's track record of beating EPS estimates in all eight recent quarters. This is a strong indicator that they might beat EPS again. However, the revenue estimate is close to the consensus, so beating it would depend on whether SNAP can exceed the higher estimate from Edgewater.

I need to structure the answer with a conclusion first, then detailed analysis. The conclusion should state the likelihood based on the data. The analysis should cover historical performance, current estimates, catalysts, risks, and analyst sentiment. Also, include a summary table and a final take.

Make sure to cite the references properly using the [^Number] format. Also, check if there are any visualizations needed. The query "SNAP Latest Report Period" and "SNAP Estimate EPS, Estimate Revenue in Fiscal 2025 Q2" have results, so I need to include the visualizations for those queries right after the relevant paragraphs.

I should also ensure the language is professional but engaging, using emojis as per the format requirement. Avoid any fabricated information and stick strictly to the provided data.

### Conclusion 🎯
**SNAP stock has a **high likelihood** of beating its upcoming Q2 2025 earnings on July 30th**, driven by its consistent track record of exceeding EPS estimates and recent optimism from analysts about its Direct Response advertising growth. However, revenue expectations remain cautious, with a narrow margin for upside surprises.

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### Analysis 📊

#### 1. **Historical Accuracy**
SNAP has demonstrated exceptional consistency in beating EPS estimates:
- **Beat EPS in 8 consecutive quarters** (most recent: Q1 2025, EPS of $0.08 vs. consensus $0.04) .
- **Revenue growth**: Q1 2025 revenue of $1.6 billion (+14.4% YoY) exceeded expectations .

| Metric | SNAP (2024-2025) | Industry Avg. |
|------------------|-------------------|----------------|
| EPS Beat Rate | 100% (last 8 quarters) | ~44.29% |
| Revenue Beat Rate | 75% (last 4 quarters) | ~50.23% |

#### 2. **Current Estimates**
Analysts project:
- **Q2 2025 EPS**: -$0.16 (vs. Q1 2025 actual EPS of $0.08) .
- **Q2 2025 Revenue**: $1.35 billion (vs. Q1 2025 actual revenue of $1.6 billion) .

| Metric | Q2 2025 Estimate | Q1 2025 Actual | YoY Change |
|------------------|-------------------|-----------------|------------|
| EPS | -$0.16 | $0.08 | -250% |
| Revenue | $1.35B | $1.6B | -16.7% |

#### 3. **Catalysts for Beat**
- **Direct Response Advertising**: Edgewater Research highlights momentum in this segment, with revenue estimates revised up to $1.362 billion (vs. consensus $1.343 billion) .
- **Partnerships**: Recent collaborations with DoubleVerify and Integral Ad Science for attention measurement could enhance ad effectiveness .
- **Legal Distractions**: Lawsuits from Utah and Apple may not directly impact Q2 results but could weigh on stock sentiment post-earnings .

#### 4. **Risks**
- **Economic Uncertainty**: Macro concerns (e.g., ad spend cuts) could limit revenue upside .
- **Altman Z-Score**: SNAP’s score of 0.19 places it in the “distress zone,” raising bankruptcy concerns .

#### 5. **Analyst Sentiment**
Mixed ratings:
- **Neutral**: Edgewater Research (average price target $9.59, +17.85% upside) .
- **Hold**: Average brokerage recommendation of 2.9 (1-5 scale) .

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### Summary Table 📈
| Metric | Q2 2025 Estimate | Q1 2025 Actual | Beat Likelihood |
|-----------------------|-------------------|-----------------|-----------------|
| EPS | -$0.16 | $0.08 | High (100% historical beat rate) |
| Revenue | $1.35B | $1.6B | Moderate (1.362B vs. 1.343B consensus) |
| Analyst Consensus | 43 firms | N/A | Neutral (Hold/Neutral) |

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### Final Take 🚨
SNAP’s **high likelihood of beating EPS** and **moderate chance of exceeding revenue** make it a **bullish bet** for Q2 2025. However, investors should monitor macroeconomic risks and legal developments post-earnings.