Gold is likely to experience volatility but may not necessarily rise tomorrow. Here's the analysis:
- Market Sentiment: The market sentiment is cautious, with investors awaiting key events such as the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. These events can significantly influence gold prices1.
- Technical Position: The XAU/USD pair is currently neutral to bullish on the 4-hour chart. Gold is trading around the bullish 20 SMA, and technical indicators have turned higher. However, the Momentum indicator remains below its 100 line, limiting the odds of a firmer advance1.
- Fed's Stance: The Federal Reserve's upcoming decision on interest rates will be a critical factor. If the Fed signals a more aggressive stance, gold could face selling pressure. Conversely, a dovish stance could support gold prices1.
- Geopolitical Factors: Geopolitical risks, such as the Israel-Hamas conflict, could provide support to gold. However, these factors can be unpredictable and may not result in immediate price movements1.
- Support and Resistance Levels: Gold is currently trading above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April/May rally at $2,326.50. The next area of interest is the monthly high of $2,356.901.
In conclusion, while gold has a positive bias and is technically positioned favorably, the immediate catalysts that could drive a significant rise are the upcoming economic data and the Fed's policy decisions. Given the current market sentiment and the lack of a clear immediate catalyst, it is difficult to predict a certain rise in gold prices tomorrow. However, if the geopolitical risks escalate or the Fed signals a more dovish stance, gold could see a rise.