Will FBMS going to beat the earnings significantly today?

The First Bancshares (FBMS) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2024. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price. The sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call. Here's a detailed analysis:

1. Earnings and Revenue Expectations: FBMS is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings, with estimated quarterly earnings of $0.61 per share, indicating a substantial decrease of -28.2% from the previous year. Revenues are expected to be $70.4 million, which is a 10.3% decrease from the year-ago quarter. These estimates reflect a cautious outlook, suggesting that FBMS may not significantly exceed market expectations.
2. Recent Performance and Surprises: FBMS has a history of surpassing consensus EPS estimates, with two out of the last four quarters exceeding expectations. However, the most recent quarter saw a slight miss, with the company reporting earnings of $0.65 per share, slightly above the consensus, but down from $0.85 per share a year ago. This recent underperformance and the expected decline in earnings suggest that FBMS may not have significant positive surprises today.
3. Market Position and Sector Trends: FBMS operates within the Banks - Southeast industry, which is subject to broader economic conditions and regulatory factors. The sector's performance can be volatile, and FBMS' ability to navigate these challenges will be crucial in determining its earnings outcome.
4. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets: The consensus rating for FBMS is currently "Hold" with an average price target of $35.50, which is a 6.2% premium over the current trading price. This suggests that analysts are not expecting a significant earnings beat, but rather a steady performance that aligns with the current market valuation.
5. Dividend Yield and Financial Health: FBMS has a dividend yield of 3.16% as of October 6, 2024, which is modest but provides an income stream for investors. The company's financial health, as indicated by a return on equity of 8.82% and a net margin of 18.71%, suggests a stable business foundation, which could support its stock price within a certain range.

In conclusion, while FBMS has a history of exceeding expectations, the consensus estimates and recent performance indicators suggest that the company may not deliver a significant earnings beat today. The market's focus will likely be on how the company performs relative to these lowered expectations and how it positions itself for future growth in a competitive banking sector.