Will CRBG's Q4 2024 earnings rebound?

**Corebridge Financial's (CRBG) Q4 2024 earnings are unlikely to rebound significantly** based on the current analyst projections and the company's strategic focus. Here's a detailed analysis:

1. **Analyst Projections**: Morgan Stanley analyst Bob Huang maintained a "Buy" rating on CRBG with a price target of $43.00, which suggests a potential upside from the current trading price. However, this does not necessarily indicate a rebound in earnings, but rather a potential appreciation in the stock value.
2. **Earnings Estimate Decrease**: Raymond James, while maintaining its "Market Perform" rating, lowered its EPS estimates for CRBG from $5.49 to $5.06 for 2025, and from $6.35 to $5.74 for 2026. This downward adjustment reflects a more cautious outlook on CRBG's earnings potential, which does not support the notion of a rebound.
3. **Challenges Facing CRBG**: CRBG is sensitive to interest rates, which could impact its net investment income. Additionally, the company is expecting higher deferred acquisition cost (DAC) amortization and sustained lower variable investment income through 2025. These factors are likely to pressure earnings rather than facilitate a rebound.
4. **Stock Valuation**: InvestingPro analysis suggests that CRBG's trading at a P/E ratio of 8.79x, which is consistent with its peers in the diversified U.S. life insurance sector and indicates a neutral valuation. This does not provide a strong basis for expecting a rebound in earnings that would significantly alter the valuation.
5. **Share Repurchases**: CRBG has been actively buying back shares, reflecting confidence in financial stability and shareholder value enhancement. While this is a positive sign, it does not necessarily imply a rebound in earnings but rather a strategic use of excess capital.

In conclusion, while CRBG's stock may have potential for appreciation based on analyst ratings and price targets, the company's earnings are not currently forming a basis for a rebound in Q4 2024. The challenges related to interest rates, DAC amortization, and variable investment income are likely to keep earnings under pressure, and the recent adjustments to earnings estimates reflect this cautious outlook.