Will CLBK's Q1 2025 earnings surprise like past quarters?

**Columbia Financial (CLBK) is likely to experience a positive earnings surprise in Q1 2025**, based on several key indicators and strategic initiatives:

1. **Consistent Improvement in Financial Metrics**: CLBK has shown a general upward trend in net income and revenue over the past quarters, despite a slight dip in Q4 2024. The net income growth rate has been positive in Q2 and Q3, with a slight contraction in Q4. The revenue growth rate has been steadily increasing from Q2 to Q3, indicating a potential for continued growth in Q1 2025.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income YoY|Total Revenue YoY|Diluted EPS YoY|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|CLBK|CLBK.O|Columbia Financial|2023 Q4|-69.9922342515189|-25.46266415521806||185|
|CLBK|CLBK.O|Columbia Financial|2024 Q1|-106.16888319179618|-27.974817587072252|-105.55555555555556|185|
|CLBK|CLBK.O|Columbia Financial|2024 Q2|172.83653846153845|5.246517142574844|100|185|
|CLBK|CLBK.O|Columbia Financial|2024 Q3|-32.256297918948526|-5.025908549821441|-33.33333333333333|185|

2. **Strategic Balance Sheet Repositioning**: CLBK's strategic balance sheet repositioning in Q4 2024 is expected to boost its 2025 earnings by 24% and expand its net interest margin (NIM) by 15 basis points. This indicates a strong potential for improved financial performance in the coming quarters.
3. **Earnings Estimate and Revenue Projection**: The estimated EPS for Q1 2025 is $0.09, and the estimated revenue is $59.4 million. These estimates are based on the company's historical performance and strategic initiatives, suggesting a positive outlook.

4. **Historical Earnings Performance**: CLBK has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times over the last four quarters, indicating a track record of exceeding earnings expectations. This bodes well for the possibility of an earnings surprise in Q1 2025.
5. **Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings**: Despite a recent decline in stock price, the formation of a hammer chart pattern suggests potential support and a possible trend reversal. Additionally, the upward trend in earnings estimate revisions indicates strong analyst confidence in CLBK's future performance.

In conclusion, considering CLBK's recent financial performance, strategic initiatives, and analyst expectations, it is reasonable to anticipate that CLBK's Q1 2025 earnings may surprise positively. However, the company's ability to execute its strategic plans and market conditions will also play a crucial role in determining the extent of this surprise.