Why was Oscar down today

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle why Oscar Health (OSCR) stock was down today. First, I need to check the latest data from the references provided. The user mentioned the current time is 2025-07-17, so I should look for any relevant data from that day.

Looking at Reference 1, there's a table showing OSCR's stock performance on 2025-07-17. The last price is $13.88 with a percentage change of -9.61%. The pre-market change was -1.17%, and post-market was +0.97%. That's a significant drop during regular trading hours. 

Next, I should check the news articles from around that time. Reference 2 and 3 mention that Wells Fargo downgraded OSCR to "Underweight" and cut the price target to $10 from $16. This downgrade happened around July 11, 2025, which is a week before the current date. The downgrade cited concerns about rising "exchange acuity," which refers to less healthy individuals enrolling in plans, potentially harming pricing strategies. Also, Centene (CNC) withdrew its 2025 guidance, causing sector-wide fears. 

Reference 4 discusses the downgrade and mentions regulatory pressures, like the DOJ's Medicare Advantage lawsuit and CMS scrutiny. The article also notes that OSCR's stock has been volatile, with 58 moves of over 5% in the past year. 

Looking at Reference 6, the latest earnings forecast for Q2 2025 shows a downward revision in EPS to $0.11, a 45% drop from the prior year. The revenue is expected to grow 25.98% to $2.8 billion. However, the downgrade and sector-wide issues might have overshadowed these numbers. 

The user's profile mentions interest in technical analysis, so I should check the RSI. Reference 21 shows the 14-day RSI for OSCR as 44.14 on 2025-07-17, which is below 50, indicating potential oversold conditions. However, the stock still dropped, suggesting other factors were at play. 

Also, Reference 19 mentions Elevance Health (ELV) cutting its guidance, which affected OSCR and other peers. This sector-wide concern likely contributed to the drop. 

Putting it all together, the main reasons for OSCR's decline today are the Wells Fargo downgrade, sector-wide fears from Centene and Elevance, regulatory risks, and negative analyst sentiment. The technicals show some oversold signs, but the fundamental issues are more pressing. The user might be interested in the technical setup, but the primary drivers are the recent downgrades and market reactions.

### **Conclusion**
Oscar Health (OSCR) stock dropped 9.61% on July 17, 2025, driven by a combination of **analyst downgrades**, **sector-wide concerns**, and **regulatory risks**. The stock also faced pre-market pressure (-1.17%) but showed some recovery in post-market trading (+0.97%) . Below is a detailed breakdown of the key factors behind the decline:

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### **Analysis of OSCR's Stock Movement**
#### 1. **Analyst Downgrades and Negative Sentiment**
- **Wells Fargo Downgrade**: The firm cut its rating on OSCR to "Underweight" from "Equal Weight" and slashed its price target to $10 from $16 . This reflects concerns over rising "exchange acuity" (less healthy individuals enrolling in plans) and inadequate pricing for 2025 .
- **Sector-Wide Pressure**: OSCR was not alone in facing downgrades. Barclays also assigned a "Underweight" rating earlier in July, citing policy risks and compliance costs .
- **Recent Earnings Concerns**: Q2 2025 EPS forecasts were revised downward to $0.11 (45% drop YoY), despite revenue growth of 25.98% to $2.8B .

| Metric | Q2 2025 Forecast | YoY Change |
|------------------------|-------------------|------------|
| EPS | $0.11 | -45% |
| Revenue | $2.8B | +25.98% |
| Price Target (Wells Fargo) | $10 | -37.5% |

#### 2. **Sector-Wide Risks**
- **Centene Withdrawal**: Peer company Centene (CNC) withdrew its 2025 guidance, sparking fears of broader challenges in the ACA marketplace .
- **Elevance Health Impact**: Elevance (ELV) cut its full-year EPS guidance due to elevated cost trends in ACA exchanges, dragging down OSCR and other peers .

#### 3. **Regulatory and Compliance Pressures**
- **DOJ Lawsuits**: OSCR faces potential compliance costs from Medicare Advantage lawsuits and CMS scrutiny of risk adjustment practices .
- **Policy Uncertainty**: Proposed changes to ACA subsidies and open enrollment periods (e.g., 9-week cap) could disrupt member retention and pricing stability .

#### 4. **Market Reaction and Technicals**
- **Price Action**: OSCR closed at $13.88 (-9.61%), with pre-market weakness (-1.17%) and post-market recovery (+0.97%) .
- **RSI Indicators**: The 14-day RSI stood at 44.14 (oversold territory), but technical support at $13–$14 may offer a buying opportunity .

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### **Key Takeaways for Investors**
- **Bull Case**: OSCR’s Q1 2025 revenue surged 42% to $3.046B, and its AI-driven platform (e.g., ICHRA enrollment) could disrupt legacy insurers .
- **Bear Case**: Regulatory headwinds, rising MLR (75.4%), and sector-wide guidance cuts pose significant risks .
- **Technical Setup**: The stock’s volatility (58 moves >5% YoY) and recent downgrade activity suggest a high-risk, high-reward scenario .

For tech enthusiasts like you, OSCR’s AI-driven healthcare platform aligns with long-term growth potential, but the near-term risks remain elevated. Stay vigilant for regulatory clarity and Q2 earnings updates (August 2025) .

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Percentage Change|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|OSCR|OSCR.N|Oscar Health|20250717|-9.609120521172636|169|

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Pre-Market Percentage Change|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|OSCR|OSCR.N|Oscar Health|20250717|-1.1726384364820828|169|

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Post-Market Percentage Change|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|OSCR|OSCR.N|Oscar Health|20250717|1.045045045045042|169|