Symbols

Why did OSCR plummet?

7/2/2025 03:29am

Aime

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle why OSCR plummeted. First, I need to look at the data provided. The user is asking about the recent drop in Oscar Health's stock price. Let me check the references.

From Reference 1, the stock had a pre-market increase of 1.45% but then dropped 7.19% post-market on 2025-07-01. That's a significant swing. The last price was $20.45 with a change of -4.62%. 

Looking at Reference 2, the stock had a 16.51% spike on June 18, followed by a 13.05% rise on June 20. But then it started dropping: -3.77% on June 23, -1.96% on June 24, -4.15% on June 25, and so on. The recent day (July 1) saw a -4.62% drop. So the stock has been volatile, with a mix of gains and losses over the past two weeks.

Now, why the drop? Let's check the news. Reference 3 mentions that Oscar Health's stock spiked due to a Medicare Part E proposal, which could expand their market. However, the recent drop might be related to other factors. Reference 6 talks about a downgrade by Raymond James from Outperform to Market Perform, citing a 45% rise in the stock and meme stock excitement. That downgrade could have spooked investors. 

Reference 7 and 16 both mention that OSCR closed down 4.62% on July 1, lagging the S&P 500's 0.11% loss. The broader market context might have played a role, but the stock underperformed. Also, Reference 13 and 14 discuss Centene withdrawing 2025 guidance due to slower growth and higher morbidity, causing their stock to drop. Oscar Health, being in the same sector, might have been affected by sector-wide concerns. 

Reference 15 mentions unusual options activity with 18 puts topping the volume-to-open interest ranking for OSCR, suggesting short interest or bearish bets. This could indicate that some investors expect further declines. 

Putting it all together: The immediate drop on July 1 could be due to a combination of factors. The downgrade by Raymond James (Reference 6) likely contributed, as downgrades often lead to sell-offs. Additionally, sector-wide issues like Centene's withdrawal of guidance (References 13,14,32) might have caused broader concern in the health insurance sector. The stock's recent volatility (Reference 2) and technical factors (like the triangle pattern mentioned in the user's previous question) could also play a role. The options activity (Reference 15) suggests bearish sentiment, which might have accelerated the decline. 

I should structure the answer by first stating the conclusion, then breaking down the factors into key points with supporting data from the references. Make sure to cite each reference properly and use tables where possible. Also, include the visualization for the pre-market and post-market changes as per the user's requirements.

Conclusion
Oscar Health (OSCR) plummeted on July 1, 2025, due to a combination of sector-wide risks, downgrade pressure, and short-term technical weakness. The stock dropped 4.62% to close at $20.45, underperforming the broader market ¹². Below is a detailed breakdown of the key factors driving this decline:

📊 Key Drivers of OSCR’s Plunge

1. Sector-Wide Concerns in Health Insurance

Centene’s Withdrawal of Guidance: Centene, a major competitor in government-backed health insurance, withdrew its 2025 earnings guidance due to slower-than-expected growth and higher morbidity rates in 22 states ⁴⁵. This raised concerns about market conditions for other insurers like Oscar.
Market Sentiment Impact: Oscar Health’s stock dropped 11.8% in sympathy with Centene’s 23.8% plunge in after-hours trading ⁴⁵.

Stock	Price Change (July 1, 2025)	Market Context
OSCR	-4.62% to $20.45	Lagging S&P 500 (-0.11%) ²³
Centene (CNC)	-23.8% after-hours	Withdrawal of 2025 guidance ⁴⁵

2. Downgrade Pressure

Raymond James Downgrade: Oscar Health was downgraded from Outperform to Market Perform in June 2025, citing speculative trading and regulatory risks ⁷⁸. This downgrade likely spooked institutional investors.
Analyst Sentiment: Despite strong Q1 2025 results (42% revenue growth, 45% stock surge), analyst consensus remains cautious, with most ratings at Hold ⁹⁷.

3. Short-Term Technical Weakness

Pre-Market vs. Post-Market Volatility: OSCR surged 1.45% pre-market but plummeted 7.19% post-market on July 1, reflecting conflicting signals ¹.
Recent Price Action: The stock had gained 50.35% over the past month but faced headwinds from mixed daily changes (-4.15% on June 25, +6.72% on June 26) ¹⁰².

Date	Pre-Market Change	Post-Market Change
2025-07-01	+1.45% ¹	-7.19% ¹

4. Options Market Activity

Bearish Sentiment: OSCR saw unusual options trading, with 18 puts topping the volume-to-open interest ranking on July 1 ¹¹. This suggests short-term bearish bets.

📉 Why This Matters for Investors

Risks: Regulatory uncertainty (e.g., Medicare Part E proposals) and sector-wide profitability concerns remain key risks ⁹⁷.
Opportunities: Oscar Health’s 42% revenue growth and 9.8% operating margin (Q1 2025) highlight long-term potential ⁷¹². The stock’s Forward P/E of 32.64 reflects high growth expectations ¹³.

Metric	Q1 2025 Results
Revenue	$3.05B (42% YoY growth) ⁷¹²
Operating Margin	9.8% (110bp improvement YoY) ⁷¹²

📊 Next Steps

Monitor Regulatory Developments: Watch for updates on Medicare Part E and CMS policy changes ⁹⁷.
Watch Earnings: Oscar Health’s Q2 2025 earnings (expected EPS: $0.34, +70% YoY) will be critical ²³.
Sector Comparison: Compare OSCR’s fundamentals with peers like Centene (CNC) and UnitedHealth (UNH) to assess relative value.

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OSCR Trend

Source:

1. OSCR Pre-Market Percentage Change, OSCR Post-Market Percentage Change