Why did HG's EPS surprises shrink in late 2024?

Hamilton Insurance Group's (HG) EPS experienced a significant decrease in the fourth quarter of 2024, from $1.15 to $0.32, which can be attributed to several factors:

1. **Higher Non-Controlling Interest Expenses**: The company reported higher non-controlling interest expenses, which had a significant impact on the net income. This was unexpected and contributed to the earnings miss.
2. **Expense Ratio**: The expense ratio for Hamilton Insurance was higher than expected, at 35% versus the estimated 33%. This higher ratio, coupled with higher corporate expenses, contributed to the earnings surprise shortfall.
3. **Corporate Expenses**: The company incurred higher corporate expenses, amounting to $19 million, which was more than the forecasted $15 million. These increased expenses included compensation costs related to the Value Appreciation Pool, which added to the negative surprise.

In summary, the decrease in EPS can be attributed to a combination of higher expenses, including non-controlling interest expenses, expense ratio, and corporate expenses. These factors, combined with lower investment income and higher catastrophe losses, contributed to the company's challenging financial performance in the fourth quarter.