Why did CDNA's Q4 earnings show a smaller surprise?

The Q4 earnings of CareDx Inc (NASDAQ: CDNA) showed a smaller surprise due to several factors:

1. Revenue Growth: While CareDx reported a 32% year-over-year increase in revenue, which is substantial, the surprise was partly offset by a higher-than-expected revenue figure. The company reported $86.58 million in revenue for the quarter, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $85.5 million. This indicates that the revenue surprise was not as significant as it could have been, given the high expectations.
2. Earnings Per Share (EPS) Surprise: The EPS surprise for CareDx was $0.03, which is relatively small considering the company's overall revenue growth. This suggests that the earnings growth was more modest compared to the revenue growth, contributing to a smaller overall surprise.

3. Analyst Expectations: Analysts had predicted a quarterly earnings per share (EPS) growth of 0.07 per share for the current quarter. However, they anticipated a more significant annual EPS of $0.6 for the current year and $1.04 for next year. This indicates that the Q4 EPS of $0.18 was still positive but may not have been as surprising given the higher analyst expectations.
4. Market Conditions: The overall market conditions and investor sentiment can also influence the perception of earnings surprises. If the market was already anticipating significant growth due to previous positive results or industry trends, the surprise may be smaller even if the company's performance is excellent.

In conclusion, while CareDx's Q4 earnings showed growth and exceeded expectations, the surprise was tempered by higher revenue figures, more modest EPS growth, and analyst expectations. These factors combined to result in a smaller earnings surprise for the company.