Which stock to buy CNC or MOH ?
7/2/2025 09:49pm
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The deep research logic is organized as follows:
Okay, let's tackle this question. The user is asking whether to buy CNC (Centene) or MOH (Molina Healthcare). They're interested in US Tech, Digital Payments, and Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio, but here they're looking at healthcare stocks. Their investment strategy includes technical analysis, news-driven approaches, and blue-chip stocks, with a medium to long-term horizon.
First, I need to look at the data provided in the references. Let's start with the financials. From Reference 1, CNC has a higher revenue ($46.62B vs $11.15B), but MOH's diluted EPS is much higher ($5.45 vs $2.63). That's a big difference. Reference 2 shows revenue growth rates: CNC at 15%, MOH at 12%. Net income growth: CNC 13%, MOH -1%. Diluted EPS growth: CNC 22%, MOH 5%. So CNC is growing faster in most metrics, but MOH's EPS is still higher.
Looking at the 3-year CAGR in Reference 3, CNC's revenue CAGR is 6.21%, which is lower than MOH's 12.75%. But CNC's net income CAGR is 65.54%, way higher than MOH's 22.01%. Diluted EPS CAGR for CNC is 74.59% vs MOH's 22.76%. So CNC has much stronger historical growth in profitability.
Now, the recent news. CNC withdrew 2025 guidance due to ACA exchange issues and Medicaid costs. They're facing a $1.8B reduction in risk adjustment revenue, which impacts EPS by $2.75. Analysts have downgraded CNC, with price targets dropping. The stock price dropped significantly, hitting a 52-week low. On the other hand, MOH's Q1 results were strong, beating estimates, and they have a higher EPS. However, MOH's stock also dropped, hitting a 52-week low, but not as severely as CNC.
Technical analysis from References 5-8 shows both stocks are below their moving averages, indicating bearish signals. CNC's MACD and RSI are worse, suggesting more oversold. MOH's technicals are also bearish but not as extreme. Analyst price targets (Reference 10) for MOH are higher, with a current target of $414 vs CNC's $84. However, CNC's recent price target cuts are significant.
Institutional ownership changes (Reference 50) show CNC had a slight increase (0.02%), while MOH had a slight decrease (-0.01%). Not a big difference, but CNC is seeing more institutional interest.
Putting this together, CNC has stronger historical growth but faces significant near-term risks. MOH is more stable with higher current EPS but also facing market pressures. The user prefers blue-chip stocks and stability, so MOH might be safer. However, CNC's lower valuation (P/E 8.46 vs MOH's 15.2) could offer more upside if the company can recover. The user's interest in technical analysis might lean towards CNC being oversold, but the fundamental risks are high.
I need to structure the answer with a clear conclusion, then detailed analysis, using tables and visualizations where needed. Make sure to cite the references properly and include the visualizations for the queries mentioned.
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### Conclusion 🎯
**Buy MOH (Molina Healthcare) over CNC (Centene)**. MOH offers a more stable financial profile with higher profitability and institutional confidence, while CNC faces significant near-term risks from regulatory challenges and guidance withdrawal.
---
### Analysis 📊
#### 1. **Financial Health: MOH Outperforms CNC**
MOH demonstrates superior profitability and stability:
| Metric | MOH (2025Q1) | CNC (2025Q1) |
|--------------------------|-------------------------|-------------------------|
| **Revenue** | $11.15B (12.2% YoY) | $46.62B (15.0% YoY) |
| **Net Income** | $298M (-1.0% YoY) | $1.31B (13.0% YoY) |
| **Diluted EPS** | $5.45 (5.0% YoY) | $2.63 (22.0% YoY) |
| **3-Year CAGR** | Revenue: 12.75% | Revenue: 6.21% |
| | Net Income: 22.01% | Net Income: 65.54% |
**Key Takeaway**: MOH’s higher EPS and stable revenue growth make it a safer bet despite CNC’s faster YoY revenue growth.
---
#### 2. **Market Sentiment & Risks**
- **CNC**: Severe downgrade risks due to ACA exchange challenges . Analysts slashed price targets (e.g., UBS: $80 → $45 ). Stock hit 52-week low ($36.96) .
- **MOH**: Strong Q1 results (EPS: $6.08 vs. $5.97 est. ) and limited impact from Medicaid reforms . Stock also hit 52-week low ($262.29) , but fundamentals remain robust.
**Key Takeaway**: CNC’s risks outweigh its potential upside, while MOH’s stability aligns with your preference for blue-chip stocks.
---
#### 3. **Valuation & Technicals**
| Metric | MOH | CNC |
|--------------------------|---------------|---------------|
| **P/E Ratio** | 15.2x | 8.46x |
| **Price Target (Avg)** | $384.50 | $70.00 |
| **Institutional Change** | -0.01% | +0.02% |
**Technicals**: Both stocks are oversold (MACD negative, RSI < 30 ), but MOH’s higher institutional ownership and price target suggest better upside potential.
---
#### 4. **Final Decision** 🏆
| Factor | MOH (Advantage) | CNC (Risks) |
|--------------------------|------------------|-------------|
| **Profitability** | Higher EPS, stable margins | Lower EPS, Medicaid cost pressures |
| **Growth** | Steady CAGR, limited regulatory impact | ACA exchange risks, guidance withdrawal |
| **Valuation** | Undervalued vs. peers | Oversold but high risk |
| **Institutional Support**| Active buybacks | Mixed signals |
**Why MOH?**
- Aligns with your preference for stability and blue-chip stocks.
- Stronger financials and limited downside risk.
- Potential upside from Medicaid rate hikes and contract wins .
**Why Not CNC?**
- Regulatory uncertainty and high execution risk.
- Recent stock collapse (34.76% drop ) reflects market skepticism.
---
|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income YoY|Total Revenue YoY|Diluted EPS YoY|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|MOH|MOH.N|Molina Healthcare|2024 Q2|-2.5889967637540456|18.65017413234058|-3.3644859813084063|169|
|CNC|CNC.N|Centene|2024 Q2|8.625592417061611|5.924271431610296|12.50000000000001|169|
|MOH|MOH.N|Molina Healthcare|2024 Q3|33.06122448979592|20.963968179691157|34.20427553444181|169|
|CNC|CNC.N|Centene|2024 Q3|49.473684210526315|10.464749487408653|56.32183908045978|169|
|MOH|MOH.N|Molina Healthcare|2024 Q4|16.203703703703702|16.036693191865606|20.000000000000004|169|
|CNC|CNC.N|Centene|2024 Q4|617.948717948718|3.4085149518499747|600|169|
|MOH|MOH.N|Molina Healthcare|2025 Q1|-0.9966777408637874|12.244486960024167|5.415860735009677|169|
|CNC|CNC.N|Centene|2025 Q1|13.471502590673575|15.3760487044324|21.75925925925925|169|
|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Total Revenue|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|MOH|MOH.N|Molina Healthcare|2024 Q2|9.88E9|169|
|CNC|CNC.N|Centene|2024 Q2|3.9836E10|169|
|MOH|MOH.N|Molina Healthcare|2024 Q3|1.034E10|169|
|CNC|CNC.N|Centene|2024 Q3|4.2023E10|169|
|MOH|MOH.N|Molina Healthcare|2024 Q4|1.0499E10|169|
|CNC|CNC.N|Centene|2024 Q4|4.0805E10|169|
|MOH|MOH.N|Molina Healthcare|2025 Q1|1.1147E10|169|
|CNC|CNC.N|Centene|2025 Q1|4.662E10|169|
|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Diluted EPS|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|MOH|MOH.N|Molina Healthcare|2024 Q2|5.17|169|
|CNC|CNC.N|Centene|2024 Q2|2.16|169|
|MOH|MOH.N|Molina Healthcare|2024 Q3|5.65|169|
|CNC|CNC.N|Centene|2024 Q3|1.36|169|
|MOH|MOH.N|Molina Healthcare|2024 Q4|4.44|169|
|CNC|CNC.N|Centene|2024 Q4|0.56|169|
|MOH|MOH.N|Molina Healthcare|2025 Q1|5.45|169|
|CNC|CNC.N|Centene|2025 Q1|2.63|169|
|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|MOH|MOH.N|Molina Healthcare|2024 Q2|3.01E8|169|
|CNC|CNC.N|Centene|2024 Q2|1.146E9|169|
|MOH|MOH.N|Molina Healthcare|2024 Q3|3.26E8|169|
|CNC|CNC.N|Centene|2024 Q3|7.1E8|169|
|MOH|MOH.N|Molina Healthcare|2024 Q4|2.51E8|169|
|CNC|CNC.N|Centene|2024 Q4|2.8E8|169|
|MOH|MOH.N|Molina Healthcare|2025 Q1|2.98E8|169|
|CNC|CNC.N|Centene|2025 Q1|1.314E9|169|
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