When is it a good time to purchase GES?

The decision to purchase Guess (NYSE: GES) stock should be based on a comprehensive analysis of various factors, including its financial performance, market position, and future outlook. Here are some key considerations:

1. **Technical Analysis**: From a technical standpoint, GES's stock is currently forming a support level at $9.34 and a resistance level at $10.50. The stock's moving averages are mixed, with the 5-day and 20-day moving averages at $9.78 and $10.73, respectively, and the 10-day moving average slightly below at $9.93. The MACD is negative at -0.26, indicating potential bearish momentum, while the RSI is at 35.79, suggesting it's neither overbought nor oversold. The KDJ indicator is at 28.65, which could suggest that the stock is currently oversold and may rebound. The Bollinger Bands are at 10.73, which could indicate that the stock is trading in the lower part of its recent range.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Support Level|Resistance Level|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|GES|GES.N|Guess|20250416|8.9100|9.5300|169|

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Moving Average|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|GES|GES.N|Guess|20250416|9.7780|169|

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Boll|RSI|KDJ|MACD|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|GES|GES.N|Guess|20250416|10.7305|35.7946|28.6466|-0.2557|169|

2. **Fundamental Analysis**: GES has reported better-than-expected quarterly results, with revenue growth of 4.6% year-on-year to $932.25 million, and a profit of $1.48 per share. However, earnings per share (EPS) estimates for FY2025 have been cut by Telsey Advisory Group from $1.92 to $1.87, and the company's net fund flow is negative at -$617,953.59, with block order fund flow also negative at -$570,330.93, which could indicate investor caution or potential selling pressure.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Fund Flow|Net Fund Flow (Block Order)|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|GES|GES.N|Guess|20250106|49626.1325|67235.2873|169|
|GES|GES.N|Guess|20250107|7153.6206|69087.8414|169|
|GES|GES.N|Guess|20250108|-2926753.9506|-2940533.9787|169|
|GES|GES.N|Guess|20250110|-21118.8867|21268.8235|169|
|GES|GES.N|Guess|20250113|120846.4874|70406.4754|169|
|GES|GES.N|Guess|20250114|2558581.4456|2461467.6588|169|
|GES|GES.N|Guess|20250115|1841538.212|1811512.1591|169|
|GES|GES.N|Guess|20250116|-1005688.3264|-962383.2783|169|
|GES|GES.N|Guess|20250117|-1567571.5379|-1567571.5379|169|
|GES|GES.N|Guess|20250121|751199.6085|768036.7744|169|

3. **Market Sentiment and Earnings Outlook**: The company's stock has seen a 27.89% increase at some point, indicating investor optimism. However, the stock has also experienced a 10.9% decrease, which could be a reaction to earnings guidance that includes a wider-than-expected loss for the current quarter. Analysts have reconfirmed their estimates over the last 30 days, suggesting they anticipate the business to stay the course heading into earnings.
4. **Strategic Considerations**: GES has announced plans to optimize its portfolio to unlock approximately $30 million in operating profit in FY27, which could indicate a strategic shift towards profitability. The company is also looking for a partner to run its direct operations in Greater China, which could be a positive sign for its long-term growth.

In conclusion, whether it's a good time to purchase GES stock depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance. If you're a long-term investor and believe in the company's strategic direction and potential for profitability, the current dip in stock price and negative fund flow could present a buying opportunity. However, if you're a short-term investor or concerned about the negative fund flow and earnings guidance, you may want to wait for a clearer picture of the company's future performance. It's also important to consider your investment goals and how GES fits into your overall portfolio.