The current forecast for XAUUSD (Gold price in US Dollars) is as follows:
- Short-term Forecast: The short-term technical outlook for Gold price suggests upside risks. The price is trading with a mild positive bias, and the rising gold demand from robust over-the-counter market investments, consistent central bank purchases, and safe-haven flows amid Middle East geopolitical risk act as a tailwind for XAU/USD1.
- Medium-term Forecast: The XAU/USD exchange rate is forecasted to increase by 0.02% in the next 24 hours, rising from the current rate of $2,509.90 to $2,510.51. The sentiment in the XAU/USD market is estimated to be bullish2.
- Long-term Forecast: Gold is expected to have a bullish potential into early 2024 on prospects of a looser Fed policy, lower US bond yields, and a weaker USD. However, a downturn in the global economy could limit the precious metal’s gains. A lack of progress in the Fed’s efforts to lower inflation could cause XAU/USD to turn south3.
- Technical Analysis: The daily XAU/USD pair chart shows buyers timidly adding longs. The pair holds above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April/May rally at $2,326.50, a relevant support level. Technical indicators turned higher within positive levels, although with limited upward strength1.
- Fundamental Analysis: The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.5% in April, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. The US will release the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could influence the XAU/USD exchange rate. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks have reinforced the notion of patience on inflation, discouraging rate cut expectations1.
In conclusion, the current XAUUSD forecast suggests a bullish sentiment in the short term, with potential for slight gains in the near future. However, traders should monitor upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments for potential shifts in market sentiment and XAU/USD's response to them.