What's the outlook for OKLO's EPS in 2025?

Oklo's EPS outlook for 2025 is cautious due to both strategic investments and operational challenges.

1. Strategic Investments Impact: Oklo is investing in its growth initiatives, which includes expanding its reactor capabilities and entering new markets. The introduction of a new 75MW reactor design is expected to improve overall plant economics, despite higher initial capital expenditures. The acquisition of Atomic Alchemy is also progressing, with plans to deploy hyperreactors upon government approval, expected to improve nuclear fuel fabrication and recycling economics.
2. Operational Challenges: However, these investments come with higher near-term cash requirements, increasing the likelihood of seeking external capital before commissioning the first reactor, which could pressure the company’s stock performance. Additionally, fuel supply constraints remain a concern, with challenges in securing long-term HALEU fuel supply. These factors could potentially affect Oklo's financial performance and EPS in 2025.
3. Analyst Perspectives: Analysts have varied views on Oklo's stock, with Citi maintaining a Neutral rating and a lowered price target of $30, indicating a more cautious outlook. In contrast, Wedbush maintains an Outperform rating with a steady price target of $45, reflecting a more optimistic view. The consensus recommendation from analysts is a Buy rating, with a range of price targets that suggest potential growth.
4. Financial Performance: Oklo reported a full-year operating loss of $52.8 million for 2024, with an adjusted operating loss at the lower end of its forecasted range. The company's project pipeline remains stable at 14.1GW as of March 25, 2025, following a 12GW agreement with Switch. The formal application for the Combined License Application is anticipated to be submitted in the fourth quarter of 2025.

In conclusion, while Oklo's strategic initiatives and partnerships are positive signs for long-term growth, the higher capital expenditures and operational challenges pose risks to its financial performance and EPS in 2025. Analysts' opinions are mixed, with some maintaining a positive outlook, while others are more cautious.