What's the outlook for INDV's EPS in 2025?

Indivior's EPS outlook for 2025 is cautious. Here's a detailed analysis:

1. Q4 2024 Performance: Indivior reported an EPS of $0.32 for Q4 2024, which exceeded the analyst forecast of $0.26. This indicates a strong earnings performance, which is a positive indicator for future EPS potential.
2. Revenue Growth: The company's revenue for Q4 2024 was $298 million, surpassing expectations with a 2% year-over-year increase. SUBLOCADE, its flagship product, saw a 20% increase in net revenue, reaching $756 million for the year. This growth is a positive sign, suggesting that if revenue trends continue, EPS could remain strong.

3. Market Conditions and Guidance: Despite the positive earnings surprise, Indivior's shares fell due to concerns over future guidance and market conditions. The company projected a 17% fall in 2025 net revenue at the midpoint of its forecast range, which could impact EPS negatively.
4. Analyst Expectations: Analysts have set a consensus target price of $16 per share, suggesting a potential upside from the current price. However, the anticipated revenue for 2025 is below the consensus, with a forecast of $955 million to $1.025 billion, which is 9% below the consensus.
5. Transition Period: 2025 is anticipated to be a transition year for Indivior, which could impact financial performance. The company's performance in 2024, with a net loss of $48.0 million and a $0.36 loss per share, indicates challenges that the company is facing. These challenges could persist into 2025 unless there is a significant shift in strategy or market conditions.

In conclusion, while Indivior's strong Q4 2024 performance and growth in SUBLOCADE sales are positive signs, the projected revenue decline in 2025 and market concerns suggest that EPS may face pressure in that year. The company's transition period and the impact of market conditions on its financial performance are key factors to watch.