What is the possibility of btc to go up

Symbols

6/5/2025 09:35am

Aime

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle this question about Bitcoin's potential to go up. The user is asking for the possibility of BTC increasing in price. First, I need to gather all the relevant data from the provided references and background information.

Starting with the block reward and halving events. From reference 1, the current block reward is 6.25 BTC, but after the 2024 halving, it's now 3.125 BTC. The next halving is in 2028, which will reduce it further. This scarcity should theoretically increase Bitcoin's value. Also, reference 15 mentions there are 32 more halving events until 2140, which adds to the long-term scarcity narrative.

Looking at miner behavior, references 9, 10, and 21 indicate that miners are holding onto their rewards post-halving. Riot Platforms sold 475 BTC in April 2025, but MARA Holdings didn't sell any in May. This reduced sell pressure could support the price. However, some miners like Riot are diversifying into data centers (reference 23), which might affect their Bitcoin holdings.

Market sentiment is mixed. Reference 8 talks about Ethereum's bullish momentum, but Bitcoin's own sentiment is neutral to bullish according to reference 38. The Fear & Greed Index is at 65/100, which is neutral. However, institutional interest is rising, with companies like BitMine (reference 6) and K Wave Media (reference 36) buying Bitcoin. BlackRock's shift to Ethereum (reference 35) might indicate diversification but also shows institutional confidence in digital assets.

Price trends from the queries (11, 12, 13) show a bullish forecast with a continuation probability of 71% and a mean forecast price around $3.33 for BTCT. The support and resistance levels suggest a bullish position. However, the current price is around $104,762 (reference 14), and there's a bearish trend with 17 days of duration. The Puell Multiple (reference 21) is moderate, indicating miners aren't under extreme pressure, which is a positive sign.

Regulatory factors are a concern. Reference 39 mentions the GENIUS Act and CFTC/SEC jurisdictional battles. Uncertainty here could cause volatility. Also, the trade war tariffs (reference 17) might impact the broader market, affecting Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset.

Institutional adoption is a key driver. MicroStrategy-like strategies (reference 36) where companies hold Bitcoin could increase demand. ETFs are also a factor, with $250B AUM projected (reference 38). However, if institutions start selling, that could pressure the price.

Technically, the price is near resistance levels ($111K-$113K) (reference 38). A breakout here could lead to further gains, but rejection might cause a pullback. The on-chain data shows 74% of Bitcoin in illiquid wallets, reducing sell-side pressure (reference 38).

Putting it all together, the possibility of Bitcoin going up is high due to scarcity from halving, reduced miner sell pressure, institutional buying, and bullish technicals. However, risks like regulatory uncertainty and market volatility could temper this. The user is interested in the US Tech sector, so comparing Bitcoin's risk-reward to tech stocks might be relevant. Bitcoin's long-term scarcity and institutional adoption align with a growth strategy, but the user should be cautious of short-term volatility.

Conclusion 🚀

Bitcoin (BTC) has a high probability of rising in price in the medium to long term, driven by structural scarcity, institutional adoption, and bullish technical indicators. However, short-term volatility risks remain due to regulatory uncertainty and market sentiment fluctuations. Let’s break this down with data-backed insights.

Analysis

1. Scarcity & Halving Dynamics

Current Block Reward: Post the 2024 halving, the reward per block is 3.125 BTC, down from 6.25 BTC ¹².
Future Halvings: There are 32 more halving events until 2140, each reducing the block reward by 50% ².
Impact: Reduced supply growth (only 3.125 BTC per block now) creates scarcity, historically aligning with price increases ¹².

Metric	Data (2025)	Implication
Block Reward	3.125 BTC/block	Scarcity-driven price upside potential.
Halving Frequency	Every ~4 years	Long-term price support via reduced supply issuance.

2. Miner Behavior & Sell Pressure

Post-Halving Activity: Miners like MARA Holdings (950 BTC mined in May 2025) are holding rewards instead of selling ³⁴.
Institutional Miners: Companies like BitMine are using proceeds to buy Bitcoin directly ⁵⁶.
Key Data: Miner sell pressure is reduced post-halving, with only 475 BTC sold by Riot Platforms in April 2025 ⁷.

Metric	Data (2025)	Implication
Miner Sell Pressure	475 BTC sold (Riot Platforms)	Reduced sell pressure supports price stability.
Miner Holdings	19,211 BTC (Riot balance sheet)	Miners acting

Source:

a

1. Explaining the Bitcoin Block Reward

more