What is the analyst consensus on gold prices for the next 24 hours

Symbols

What is the analyst consensus on gold prices for the next 24 hours?

4/17/2025 10:55pm

Aime

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle this question about the analyst consensus on gold prices for the next 24 hours. The user is asking specifically about the next day or so, so I need to focus on the most recent data and forecasts from credible sources.

First, I'll check the references provided. Number 17 from FXStreet mentions that as of April 17, 2025, the XAU/USD price was $3,315.82, having retreated from a high of $3,357.40 but still holding above $3,300. The article notes that the price bounced from a low of $3,284.10 and regained the $3,300 mark. It also mentions that the European Central Bank cut rates, and there's profit-taking ahead of the Easter weekend. The technical outlook suggests higher highs are still likely, with the daily chart showing a higher high and a bullish momentum indicator.

Then, looking at reference 30 and 31 from Reuters and Yahoo Finance, Citi raised its 3-month target to $3,500 from $3,200, citing Chinese insurer buying and safe-haven demand. They also mention that gold is in a physical deficit, which supports higher prices. Reference 32 from TradingView elaborates on this, stating that Citi expects investment and industrial demand to outstrip mine supply by 110% in the second quarter, the highest since the financial crisis. This supply tightness is a strong bullish factor.

Reference 36 from ING highlights record inflows into Chinese gold ETFs, which adds to the demand side. The Shanghai Gold Exchange saw significant inflows, indicating strong retail and institutional interest in China. This aligns with the Citi report's points about Chinese demand.

Reference 38 from Deutsche Bank points out that China's gold premium dropped sharply, which might indicate that supply constraints are easing, but the overall demand remains strong. This could mean that the price increase is sustainable as supply issues are being addressed.

The user is interested in technical levels, so I need to highlight the key resistance and support levels. The recent high of $3,357.40 is a critical resistance level. If the price breaks above this, it could signal a resumption of the upward trend. The support level is around $3,300, and holding above this is crucial for maintaining bullish momentum.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (reference 33) shows that the federal funds rate remained at 4.33%, which is in line with expectations. However, there's anticipation of potential rate cuts later in the year, which could weaken the dollar and further support gold prices. The user's interest in the Fed's impact is covered here, even though the immediate 24-hour forecast isn't directly affected by the rate decision but by market sentiment around it.

Considering the user's focus on technical analysis, I should emphasize the importance of the $3,357 resistance level and the $3,300 support. The Citi target of $3,500 for the next three months provides a longer-term bullish outlook, which can influence short-term trading decisions as traders anticipate reaching that target.

In summary, the consensus from these references points to a likely increase in gold prices over the next 24 hours, driven by strong demand from China, a physical gold deficit, profit-taking after recent highs, and technical indicators suggesting higher resistance levels can be tested. The key levels to watch are $3,357 and $3,300, with a break above the former indicating further upside potential.

Analyst Consensus on Gold Prices (XAU/USD) for the Next 24 Hours (April 17–18, 2025):
Gold is likely to rise, with a focus on testing the $3,357 resistance level (recent all-time high) and holding above the $3,300 support level. Below is the detailed breakdown:

1. Key Price Levels & Technical Momentum

Current Price: $3,315.82 (as of April 17, 2025) ¹.
Resistance:
- $3,357: The psychological resistance level (April 17 high). A break above this would confirm bullish momentum.
- $3,400: The next critical resistance, aligning with Citi’s 3-month target of $3,500 ²³.
Support:
- $3,300: A hold above this level is critical to sustain the upward trend. A drop below could trigger short-term profit-taking.

2. Catalysts Driving the Upside

Chinese Demand Surge:
- Record inflows into Chinese gold ETFs ($410M on April 14) ⁴.
- 10 Chinese insurers now allocate 1% of assets to gold (annual demand: ~255 tonnes) ²³.
- The People’s Bank of China reopened the gold import arbitrage window, boosting imports ⁵.
Physical Gold Deficit:
- Demand exceeds mine supply by 110% in Q2 2025 (highest since the 2008 crisis) ⁵.
Geopolitical Tensions:
- US-China tariffs escalated to 245% (US) and 125% (China), creating uncertainty ⁶⁷.
- Investors are pricing in a prolonged trade war, favoring gold as a safe-haven ¹⁵.
Dollar Weakness:
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades at 99.50, down from its January high of 103.61 ⁸. A weaker dollar reduces gold’s valuation for non-US investors.

3. Institutional Forecasts

Citi: Raised 3-month target to $3,500/oz (from $3,200), citing "extremely rare physical deficit" ²³.
Goldman Sachs: End-of-2025 target: $3,300/oz ⁹¹⁰.
Deutsche Bank: Projects $3,350/oz by year-end 2025 ¹¹³.

4. Risks to Watch

Profit-Taking: The -1.2% pullback on April 17 reflects pre-weekend liquidation ¹.
Fed Policy: The Fed maintained its 4.33% federal funds rate, but slower rate-cut expectations could pressure the dollar ¹²¹³.

5. User-Specific Insights

China Tech Sector (MLGO): Escalating tariffs on tech components (e.g., semiconductors) could drive investors toward gold as a hedge against volatility.
Technical Focus: Monitor the $3,357 resistance level. A break above this level would validate the bullish setup, with the next target at $3,500 ²⁵.

Conclusion

Gold is poised to rise over the next 24 hours, with a high probability of testing the $3,357 resistance. A break above this level would signal a retest of the $3,500 target. Investors should watch the US-China tariff updates (April 17–18) and the DXY’s reaction to the Fed’s policy stance. For a short-to-medium-term strategy, waiting for a pullback to $3,300–$3,325 before entering long positions would align with risk management principles.

Let me know if you’d like a deeper dive into specific technical levels or China-specific catalysts!

Source:

1. Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD recovered above $3,300 with higher highs still likely