What does BWB's earnings surprise history suggest for investors?

Bridgewater Bancshares Inc.'s (BWB) earnings surprise history suggests a company that has experienced fluctuations in its financial performance, which is a key consideration for investors evaluating the stock.

1. **Consistent Revenue Growth**: BWB's revenue has shown a consistent upward trend, with a significant increase from $3.72 billion in 2023 to $3.87 billion in 2024. This indicates a strong revenue growth trajectory, which is a positive sign for investors looking for stable and increasing income streams.
2. **Earnings Variations**: The company's earnings per diluted share (EPS) have varied, with a decrease from $1.27 in 2023 to $1.03 in 2024. This fluctuation could be a concern for investors who prefer stable earnings. However, it's important to note that the EPS still remained positive, and the company's net income of $32.8 million for 2024 was respectable, albeit slightly lower than the previous year.
3. **Surprise in EPS and Revenue**: BWB has experienced both positive and negative surprises in its EPS and revenue. For instance, there was a positive EPS surprise of $0.03 in 2024, but a negative revenue surprise of -$277,000 in the same period. This mixed performance suggests that while the company may exceed expectations in one area, it may fall short in another, which can lead to volatile stock reactions from investors.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Revenue Surprise|EPS Surprise|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|BWB|BWB.O|Bridgewater|2021 Q1|133000|0.03|186|
|BWB|BWB.O|Bridgewater|2021 Q2|991000|0.01|186|
|BWB|BWB.O|Bridgewater|2021 Q3|2003000|0.03|186|
|BWB|BWB.O|Bridgewater|2021 Q4|-259000|0|186|
|BWB|BWB.O|Bridgewater|2022 Q1|567000|0.01|186|
|BWB|BWB.O|Bridgewater|2022 Q2|1430000|0|186|
|BWB|BWB.O|Bridgewater|2022 Q3|-118000|0.01|186|
|BWB|BWB.O|Bridgewater|2022 Q4|-1699000|-0.02|186|
|BWB|BWB.O|Bridgewater|2023 Q1|-1103000|0.04|186|
|BWB|BWB.O|Bridgewater|2023 Q2|-2493000|0|186|

4. **Market Performance and Analyst Ratings**: Despite the fluctuations, BWB has been rated as an "Outperform" by Hovde Group and an "Overweight" by Piper Sandler, indicating a positive outlook from analysts. The company's valuation metrics, such as the P/E ratio and enterprise value, suggest that it is trading below its estimated fair value, which could be attractive to value investors.
5. **Insider Ownership and Growth Prospects**: Bridgewater Bancshares has a high level of insider ownership, which can be seen as a positive sign of confidence in the company's long-term prospects. Additionally, the company's revenue growth forecast is projected to be 14.9% per annum, which is a strong indicator of future profitability.

In conclusion, BWB's earnings surprise history suggests a company with a mixed performance, but with a strong revenue growth trajectory and a positive analyst outlook. Investors should consider both the potential for consistent growth and the volatility in earnings when evaluating the stock. The high insider ownership and the company's valuation metrics also provide a positive context for investment consideration.