What caused OBK's significant earnings miss in Q4?

Origin Bancorp's (OBK) significant earnings miss in Q4 2024 can be attributed to a combination of factors:

1. **Revenue Shortfall**: The company's total revenue fell by 3.9% to $78.02 million compared to the same period last year, missing the estimated revenue of $87.75 million. This decline was primarily due to lower net interest income, which expanded by only 1 basis point to 3.33%, below the expected mid-single-digit expansion. Additionally, the company experienced a decrease in noninterest income, primarily due to normal seasonality in the mortgage business.
2. **Expense Pressures**: The net interest margin (NIM) expanded by only 1 basis point, which was below expectations. This was largely due to higher-than-anticipated deposit costs, despite the company modeling a zero beta for Fed rate cuts. The actual deposit betas have been around 40%, which has impacted the net interest margin.
3. **Provision for Credit Losses**: The provision for credit losses recorded a benefit of $5.4 million, a significant improvement from the $4.6 million expense in the previous quarter. This change in provision could have affected the net income.
4. **Loan Portfolio**: There was a decrease in noninterest income, primarily due to normal seasonality in the mortgage business. Additionally, the company experienced a 4.8% decrease in total loans held for investment.
5. **Economic Conditions**: The broader economic conditions, including rising interest rates and credit challenges, have also impacted the bank's financial performance.

In summary, OBK's Q4 earnings miss was likely a result of a combination of lower revenue, higher expenses, and provisions for credit losses, alongside broader economic conditions.