What caused CARG's Q4 earnings to fall short of forecasts?

CarGurus's Q4 earnings fell short of forecasts due to several key factors:

1. **Revenue Miss**: Total revenue reported was $228.54 million, which was slightly below the analyst's estimate of $231.85 million. This discrepancy of -3.18 million was primarily due to marketplace revenue reporting at $210 million, missing the expected $211 million estimate.
2. **Challenges in Digital Wholesale Segment**: The Digital Wholesale segment faced a significant challenge, ending the year with an $18 million adjusted EBITDA loss. This was attributed to a 55% year-over-year decline in wholesale revenue, driven by a decrease in dealer-to-dealer transaction volume.
3. **Product Revenue Decline**: CarGurus experienced a 55% year-over-year decrease in product revenue, reflecting a reversion to normal conditions across origination channels.
4. **Marketplace Growth Challenges**: Despite a 15% year-over-year growth in marketplace revenue, the overall growth trajectory faced headwinds. New customer acquisition struggles and a plateauing of paying dealers (32,010 flat over two years) hindered growth.

In summary, CarGurus's Q4 performance was impacted by a combination of revenue shortfalls in key segments, strategic shifts, and market dynamics, leading to overall earnings falling short of forecasts.