The price of coal is projected to be influenced by various factors over the next year:
- Market Forecasts: By mid-2022, forward prices anticipated coal prices to remain above USD 200/t until mid-20251. This suggests a potential for coal prices to remain elevated in the near term.
- U.S. Coal Prices: The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that U.S. coal prices will generally increase each year through 20502. This indicates a long-term upward trend, although the pace of increase may vary.
- Coking Coal Prices: The average price for hard coking coal is forecast to be 202.6 nominal U.S. dollars per metric ton in 20253, while the average price for semi-soft coking coal is forecast to be 144.1 nominal U.S. dollars per metric ton that year3. These forecasts suggest that coking coal prices may stabilize or slightly decrease from current levels.
- Coal Market Dynamics: The share of generation from coal is forecast to fall from 17% in 2023 to 16% in 2024 and 15% in 20254. This indicates a gradual decrease in coal's role in electricity generation, which could lead to slightly lower coal prices as the market adjusts to this trend.
- Global Oil Market: The oil market is expected to influence coal prices, as oil prices are a significant factor in the cost of coal production and transportation. If oil prices decrease, as predicted by some analysts5, coal prices may also be affected.
In conclusion, while there are indications that coal prices may remain elevated in the near term, the gradual decrease in coal's share of generation and the potential for oil prices to decrease could lead to slightly lower coal prices over the next year. The overall trend
6/28/2024 09:39pm
