How volatile are SHOP's quarterly earnings?

Shopify's (SHOP) quarterly earnings have shown a general trend of improving net income over the past three years, but with some volatility. Here's a detailed analysis:

1. **Trend of Improving Net Income**:
- Shopify's net income has experienced significant growth, from -$371.31 million on December 31, 2021, to $1.29 billion on December 31, 2024.
- The company's financial performance has improved consistently, with net income increasing in all quarters except for the three months ending June 30, 2022, when there was a slight dip to -$623 million.
2. **Volatility in Net Income**:
- The volatility of Shopify's net income has been variable over the past three years. The weekly volatility ranged from as high as 8.67% on May 5, 2022, to as low as 1.94% on August 5, 2025.
- Notably, the volatility decreased from 8.67% to 2.1% from May 5, 2022, to August 23, 2022, indicating a period of relative stability. However, it then increased to 3.67% on March 27, 2025, suggesting a recent rise in earnings volatility.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income YoY|Net Income|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|SHOP|SHOP.N|Shopify|2022 Q1|-217.12867864706044|-1.474E9|169|
|SHOP|SHOP.N|Shopify|2022 Q2|-236.95934332317515|-1.204E9|169|
|SHOP|SHOP.N|Shopify|2022 Q3|-113.84496426431865|-1.59E8|169|
|SHOP|SHOP.N|Shopify|2022 Q4|-67.78387928178805|-6.23E8|169|
|SHOP|SHOP.N|Shopify|2023 Q1|104.61329715061058|6.8E7|169|
|SHOP|SHOP.N|Shopify|2023 Q2|-8.887043189368772|-1.311E9|169|
|SHOP|SHOP.N|Shopify|2023 Q3|551.5723270440252|7.18E8|169|
|SHOP|SHOP.N|Shopify|2023 Q4|205.45746388443015|6.57E8|169|
|SHOP|SHOP.N|Shopify|2024 Q1|-501.4705882352941|-2.73E8|169|
|SHOP|SHOP.N|Shopify|2024 Q2|113.04347826086956|1.71E8|169|

In conclusion, while Shopify's net income has shown a general upward trend, it has experienced volatility, with fluctuations in both positive and negative directions. The recent increase in weekly volatility to 3.67% on March 27, 2025, suggests that the company's earnings may be more variable in the near term. Investors should be aware of these fluctuations and consider them in their investment decisions.