Can VAC sustain its earnings momentum into next year?

**Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) is poised to sustain its earnings momentum into next year**, based on several key factors:

1. **Strong Financial Performance**: VAC's fourth quarter of 2024 results exceeded expectations, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $185 million, surpassing both analyst and consensus projections. The company maintained strong profitability with a gross margin of 55.7% and generated $665 million in EBITDA over the last twelve months.
2. **Strategic Initiatives**: VAC has announced an expanded EBITDA enhancement program, aiming to achieve an additional $100 million to $150 million in savings by 2027. This initiative focuses on both revenue growth and cost reduction, indicating a clear path to sustained profitability.
3. **Revenue Growth Targets**: The company anticipates a 4% increase in gross Vacation Ownership Interest (VOI) sales and projects adjusted earnings per share (EPS) between $6.30 and $7.00 for the fiscal year 2025. These targets, coupled with expected growth in Volume Per Guest (VPG), occupancy rates, and Average Daily Rates (ADRs), suggest a positive outlook for revenue growth.
4. **Market Position and Trends**: The Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry is projected to grow, with the market expected to reach $3,144.7 billion globally by 2035 at a 12.1% CAGR. The overall Hotels, Resorts, and Cruise Lines industry is also forecasted to grow, with a projected market value of $3,087.27 billion by 2032 at a 17.5% CAGR. Marriott Vacations Worldwide's position within these trends positions it well for continued growth.
5. **Insider Confidence**: Recent insider transactions, such as the purchase of 1,620 shares by Charles Elliott Andrews, a director at VAC, at a price of $71.82 each, totaling approximately $116,348, indicate continued confidence in the company's prospects. This insider activity often serves as a signal to investors about the company's future performance.

In conclusion, Marriott Vacations Worldwide's strong financial performance, strategic initiatives, revenue growth targets, favorable market trends, and insider confidence all point to the company's ability to sustain its earnings momentum into next year.