Using my Hiive account is ASTRONOMER a good deal at 1.10 stock price? What are price predictions and when it might ipo

**Bottom-line**
At $1.10 per share, Astronomer appears modestly *above* the most recent secondary-market prints (~$0.88) yet still *below* the 120-day “fair-value” consensus of ~$1.41; that puts your Hiive offer roughly in the middle of today’s trading envelope. In the absence of a filed S-1 or formal guidance from the company, any IPO timing or price target remains speculative—but on fundamentals and recent funding momentum, the risk/reward looks reasonable for a long-term, cloud-data bet as long as you’re prepared for the illiquidity of pre-IPO shares. 🚀🛰️

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## 1. How the $1.10 ask stacks up
| Metric | Latest datapoint | Where $1.10 sits |
|--------|-----------------|------------------|
| Secondary “last trade” | ~$0.88/share (July-27 screen prints) | +25% premium |
| 120-day derived “consensus value” | ~$1.41/share | 22% discount |
| Investor demand / supply ratio | 0.7 : 1 (more sellers than buyers) | Suggests room to negotiate |

*Interpretation*: You’re paying a premium to the very last print but still a discount to where the market’s fair-value model pegs the stock. That’s often acceptable if you believe the company will close the valuation gap before liquidity arrives. A low demand-to-supply ratio, however, gives you bargaining power—don’t be afraid to counter around $0.95–$1.00. 🤑

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## 2. Company fundamentals & latest funding
• Fresh $93 m Series D led by Bain Capital Ventures in May-25 → implied post-money valuation ≈ $740 m
• UpMarket’s independent model pegs the company at ~$814 m
• Forbes coverage (July-26) cites a $1.3 b “headline” valuation following the viral PR bump

Even the conservative $740–814 m range would place Astronomer at only ~3–6 × FY-25 ARR (management disclosed 150%+ YoY ARR growth but not the absolute number), which is attractive versus public comps like Snowflake (~16 ×) or Confluent (~8 ×). That upside multiple expansion is the real thesis here.

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## 3. IPO outlook - what to expect
| Milestone | Status | Probable timing |
|-----------|--------|-----------------|
| S-1 draft filed | No | Earliest H1-26 |
| 12-month audit ready | Series D proceeds earmark R&D & “path to profitability in two years” | Mid-26 |
| Bank syndicate leaks | None public | 6-9 mo pre-IPO |
| Market window for infra-cloud names | Improving (Databricks, Rubrik filings) | 2026 wave |

No credible source reports a 2025 IPO; management statements suggest the focus is on building scale and hitting profitability targets first. Realistically, a late-2026 to 2027 listing is the base case. Treat the shares as a 12-24-month lock-up.

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## 4. Decision grid

| Question | If **Yes** | If **No** |
|----------|-------------|-----------|
| Do you want early exposure to a high-growth DataOps pure-play? | Proceed (negotiate <$1.05) | Skip |
| Can you tolerate 2–3 yrs illiquidity? | Proceed | Skip |
| Comfortable with secondary-market mark-downs before IPO? | Proceed | Skip |

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## 5. Suggested next steps
1. **Counter-bid** in the $0.95–$1.05 range; the current order book gives you leverage.
2. Cap your allocation to <10 % of your private-equity sleeve—pre-IPO positions are binary.
3. Set a calendar reminder to monitor for an S-1 filing; once public, revisit your thesis vs. actual revenue run-rate.

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### Final thoughts 🤔
Astronomer sits at the intersection of cloud computing and AI workflow orchestration—an area squarely in your stated tech focus. The company’s growth metrics and fresh capital raise make the story compelling, but patience will be required. If you can negotiate the price closer to $1.00 and hold through a potential 2026 listing, the asymmetry favors buying a starter position.

*Good luck, and feel free to ping me before you hit “Confirm” on Hiive!* 💬

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: Astronomer secondary-market dashboard, 27 Jul 2025—price $0.88; 120-day consensus $1.41; demand/supply 0.7:1.
: UpMarket valuation model list, 04 Jul 2025—estimated valuation $813.96 m, last-funding valuation $739.96 m.
: Company press release, 01 May 2025—Series D $93 m led by Bain Capital Ventures.
: Forbes tech feature, 26 Jul 2025—mentions $1.3 b internal valuation post-publicity event.