Usdchf buy or sell | AIME by AInvest

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Usdchf buy or sell

6/5/2025 12:53am

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The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle the user's question about whether to buy or sell USD/CHF. First, I need to look at the data provided in the references. The user is interested in USD/CHF, so I'll focus on the relevant articles and forecasts.

Starting with the latest forecast from CoinCodex (Reference 2), the USD/CHF is expected to drop by -4.76% in the next month, from 0.82252 to 0.783354. That's a significant decline, suggesting a bearish outlook. Then, looking at the recent price action, the pair has been fluctuating around 0.8200, with some articles mentioning it hitting six-week lows (References 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9). The technical analysis from FXStreet (References 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9) shows mixed signals but leans towards bearish momentum with RSI favoring sellers and potential support levels around 0.8100 and 0.8000.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is also in the mix. Recent articles (References 21, 22, 23) mention the SNB considering rate cuts, with inflation turning negative in May. This could weaken the CHF as lower rates might make it less attractive as a safe-haven currency. However, the uncertainty around Trump's tariffs (References 8, 9, 15, 35, 36, 37) adds volatility, but the CHF tends to strengthen in risk-off environments, which might counteract some of the bearish pressure.

The user's profile mentions interest in technical analysis and market sentiment. The USD/CHF has been testing the 0.8200 level, with some bullish engulfing patterns invalidated (References 3, 4). The resistance at 0.8250 and support at 0.8100 are key levels. The recent price action shows a breakdown below 0.8200, which could signal further downside. The RSI is below the midline, indicating bearish momentum.

Putting it all together, the technical setup and fundamental factors (SNB rate cuts, tariffs, inflation) suggest a bearish bias. The user should consider selling USD/CHF, with entry points around 0.8200 and exits near 0.8100 or 0.8000. However, they need to be cautious of potential bullish reversals if the US data improves or if the SNB doesn't cut rates as expected.

Conclusion

SELL USD/CHF 📉
The USD/CHF pair is under significant bearish pressure due to weak US economic data, renewed safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc, and technical breakdowns below key support levels. The short-term outlook favors further downside toward 0.8100–0.8000, with risks of a deeper correction if the US Dollar continues to weaken.

Analysis

1. Market Setup

Metric	Current (2025-06-05)	Key Levels
USD/CHF Price	~0.8174 ¹²	Support: 0.8100–0.8000; Resistance: 0.8200–0.8250
US Dollar Strength	Weak (ADP jobs: 37K vs. 114K expected ²³)	DXY: ~99.20 ⁴
Swiss Franc Drivers	Deflation risks (CPI -0.1% YoY ⁵⁶), SNB rate cut expectations ⁷⁵

2. Technical Breakdown

Bearish Momentum: RSI (14-day) at ~39.60 ⁸, below the midline (50), confirming selling pressure.
Key Levels:
- Support: 0.8100 (YTD low ¹⁹) and 0.8000 (psychological barrier).
- Resistance: 0.8200 (failed breakout ¹¹⁰) and 0.8250 (bullish engulfing invalidated ¹¹⁰).
Chart Pattern: Recent price action shows a breakdown below the 100-day EMA (~0.8240 ⁸), signaling a shift to bearish dominance.

3. Fundamental Catalysts

US Data Weakness:
- ADP jobs (37K vs. 114K expected ²³) and ISM Services PMI (49.9 vs. 50.6 expected ¹¹) indicate stagflation risks.
- Tariff uncertainty (Trump’s 50% steel/aluminum tariffs ¹²¹³) adds pressure on the US Dollar.
Swiss Franc Strength:
- Deflation risks (CPI -0.1% YoY ⁵⁶) and SNB rate cut expectations (69% chance to 0% ⁵) support CHF as a safe-haven.

4. Risk-Reward

Entry: Sell USD/CHF at 0.8200 (resistance breakout confirmed ¹¹⁰).
Exit:
- Target 1: 0.8100 (YTD low ¹⁹).
- Target 2: 0.8000 (psychological level).
- Stop Loss: 0.8250 (bullish reversal risk).

Conclusion

The USD/CHF pair is primed for further downside, with key risks at 0.8100–0.8000. Traders should prioritize selling USD/CHF at 0.8200, with a focus on managing downside risks amid ongoing US economic uncertainty and Swiss Franc strength.

Source:

1. USD/CHF Price Forecast: Dives below 0.82 as sellers regain control on USD slide