Is UPS's Q1 2025 forecast a sign of growth?

UPS's Q1 2025 forecast does not indicate growth, and several factors suggest the contrary:

1. Earnings Per Share (EPS) Reduction: Bank of America Securities analyst Ken Hoexter has lowered the EPS forecast for Q1 2025 by 15% to $1.31. A lower EPS indicates a decline in profitability, which is not a sign of growth.
2. Revenue Forecast Reduction: The estimated revenue for Q1 2025 is $21.52 billion, which is lower than the previous forecast. This reduction, coupled with the EPS downgrade, suggests a decline in expected business volume and revenue.

3. Volume Decline Forecast: Bank of America projects an 8% year-over-year decline in domestic volumes for Q1 2025 due to tariff concerns and winter weather. This volume decline is a clear indication of a slowdown in growth.
4. Price Target Lowering: The price target for UPS has been lowered by 3% to $129, which corresponds to 17.5 times the 2025 EPS estimate. This adjustment reflects a more cautious outlook from the analyst, which does not suggest growth prospects.
5. Structural Cost Restructuring: UPS is hesitant to cut structural costs beyond current targets, indicating a reluctance to make aggressive changes to address the current challenges. This could imply that the company is not positioning itself for accelerated growth.

In conclusion, the Q1 2025 forecast for UPS shows signs of decline rather than growth, primarily due to reduced EPS and revenue forecasts, volume decline projections, and a lowered price target.