How does UPS's 2024 performance impact future dividends?

UPS's 2024 performance, particularly in terms of free cash flow and dividend payout ratio, provides insights into the sustainability of its dividend payments.

1. **Free Cash Flow**: UPS generated $6.21 billion in free cash flow by the end of 2024. This is a positive indicator as free cash flow provides a buffer to cover dividend payments without needing to tap into retained earnings. A strong free cash flow suggests that UPS has the financial flexibility to maintain and potentially increase its dividend payouts.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Free Cash Flow|Free Cash Flow YoY|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|UPS|UPS.N|United Parcel|2024 Q1|5.099298179E9|-8.24080894246495|169|
|UPS|UPS.N|United Parcel|2024 Q2|3.6554531E9|-51.81613181091272|169|
|UPS|UPS.N|United Parcel|2024 Q3|5.677708928E9|-32.65737590085115|169|
|UPS|UPS.N|United Parcel|2024 Q4|5.022834136E9|-36.179343261458875|169|

2. **Payout Ratio**: The payout ratio, which measures the proportion of earnings paid out as dividends, can impact the sustainability of dividends. A high payout ratio may indicate that a company is retaining less earnings, which could affect its long-term financial health and ability to grow dividends. UPS's payout ratio stood at -93.38%, which is unusually low and suggests that the company may not be retaining earnings for growth. However, a negative payout ratio could be due to unusual circumstances or accounting practices, and it's important to consider other factors.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Payout Ratio|Dividend Yield (TTM)|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|UPS|UPS.N|United Parcel|20240101|8.926389520639107||169|
|UPS|UPS.N|United Parcel|20240102|8.926389520639107|4.107819249715802|169|
|UPS|UPS.N|United Parcel|20240103|8.926389520639107|4.128679065634125|169|
|UPS|UPS.N|United Parcel|20240104|8.926389520639107|4.143143512325626|169|
|UPS|UPS.N|United Parcel|20240105|8.926389520639107|4.097984501008065|169|
|UPS|UPS.N|United Parcel|20240106|8.926389520639107||169|
|UPS|UPS.N|United Parcel|20240107|8.926389520639107||169|
|UPS|UPS.N|United Parcel|20240108|8.926389520639107|4.067234242121061|169|
|UPS|UPS.N|United Parcel|20240109|8.926389520639107|4.06672564711767|169|
|UPS|UPS.N|United Parcel|20240110|8.926389520639107|4.034438034983253|169|

3. **Dividend Growth**: UPS has a history of increasing its dividend for 16 years, which is a positive sign for future dividends. The company's commitment to dividend growth indicates a stable and predictable income stream, which can attract income-focused investors.
4. **Revenue and Net Income Growth**: UPS's total revenue remained stable at $91.07 billion, and the net income grew slightly by 0.14%. While revenue growth may not be significant, stability in revenue and net income can support dividend payments. However, the slight decline in net income could be a concern if it were to continue, as it may affect the company's ability to increase dividends over time.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income YoY|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|UPS|UPS.N|United Parcel|2024 Q1|-41.266490765171504|169|
|UPS|UPS.N|United Parcel|2024 Q2|-32.29216722729457|169|
|UPS|UPS.N|United Parcel|2024 Q3|36.557231588287486|169|
|UPS|UPS.N|United Parcel|2024 Q4|7.2274143302180685|169|

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Total Revenue YoY|Total Revenue|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|UPS|UPS.N|United Parcel|2024 Q1|-5.317339149400218|2.1706E10|169|
|UPS|UPS.N|United Parcel|2024 Q2|-1.0745862616186808|2.1818E10|169|
|UPS|UPS.N|United Parcel|2024 Q3|5.621765348274061|2.2245E10|169|
|UPS|UPS.N|United Parcel|2024 Q4|1.5411165068025847|2.5301E10|169|

In conclusion, UPS's 2024 performance, with a strong free cash flow and a history of dividend growth, supports the notion that the company's future dividends are likely to be sustainable. However, the unusually low payout ratio and slight decline in net income warrant close monitoring by investors. If these factors improve or remain stable, UPS's dividend payments are likely to continue.