What can past UPS earnings tell us about 2025?


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United Parcel Service's (UPS) past earnings performance and current guidance provide insights into its expected performance in 2025:
- Consistent Performance with Variations: UPS has shown consistent revenue growth, albeit with some fluctuations. For instance, in 2024, revenue was flat compared to 2023 at $91.1 billion1. This stability suggests a strong operational foundation.
- Earnings Challenges: While revenue has been robust, earnings per share (EPS) have faced challenges. In 2024, EPS missed estimates, with a decrease from $7.81 in 2023 to $6.761. This trend suggests that while revenue may be solid, increased costs or operational inefficiencies could impact profitability.
- Guidance for 2025: UPS provided guidance for 2025, expecting revenue of approximately $89.0 billion2. This figure is slightly below the analyst consensus of $95.01 billion3. The company's cautious stance on revenue expectations could reflect ongoing challenges or strategic adjustments.
- Recent Performance: In the fourth quarter of 2024, UPS beat EPS expectations with $2.75, surpassing the analyst estimate of $2.523. This indicates a potential upside in future earnings if operational efficiencies are maintained.
- Institutional Confidence: Institutional investments, such as SGL Investment Advisors Inc.'s $3.97 million position in UPS4, demonstrate confidence in the company's long-term prospects. This could be a sign that despite short-term challenges, UPS is seen as a stable investment with growth potential.
In conclusion, while UPS has faced challenges in EPS, its consistent revenue growth and recent positive performance suggest that with effective management, the company could deliver solid results in 2025. The provided guidance and institutional investments support this view, indicating a moderate to bullish outlook for UPS in the upcoming year.
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