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United healthcare price prediction next week

8/11/2025 08:17am

``` The deep research logic is organized as follows: Okay, let's tackle the user's question about UnitedHealth Group's price prediction for next week. First, I need to gather all the relevant data from the provided references. The user is interested in a short-term prediction, so I should focus on the most recent and relevant information. Starting with the earnings release date, Reference 1 mentions that UNH's earnings are scheduled for July 29, 2025, before the market opens. However, the current time is August 10, 2025, so the earnings have already been released. The earnings report might have affected the stock price, so I should check the price trends around that time. Looking at Reference 6 and 7, there were significant drops in UNH's stock price on July 29 due to lowered earnings targets and profit warnings. The stock fell 3.93% and 4% respectively. This indicates that the earnings report was negative, which could have a lingering effect on the stock price. Next, the technical analysis from References 2, 3, and 33. Reference 2 shows a bearish trend with a duration of 28 days and a continuation probability of 30%. The conditioned trend has 22 days of clear trend and 6 days of unclear, which isn't very strong. The unconditioned trend shows a 70% probability over 10.6 days and 50% over 14 days. This suggests some uncertainty but leans towards a bearish continuation. Reference 3 provides support and resistance levels. The current price is between narrow and wide resistance levels, with a bullish trend but a bearish forecast. The advice is to sell, which aligns with the bearish technical indicators. The historical win rate is slightly above the market average, but the forecast is bearish. Reference 33 confirms that UNH is classified as a bearish stock on August 8, 2025, which is close to the current date. This reinforces the bearish sentiment. The trend similarity-based forecast in Reference 4 gives a bearish trend with a mean forecast price around $242.53 for August 11, 2025. The confidence intervals show a wide range, indicating high volatility. The expected max loss is -31.73%, which is quite significant, suggesting a high risk of price decline. Looking at the recent price data from Reference 10, the closing price on August 8, 2025, was $250.89 with a 2.54% increase. However, the stock is still below the resistance levels mentioned in Reference 3, which are around $240.41 to $247.56. The current price is above the narrow resistance, which might indicate some bullish pressure, but the overall trend is bearish. Analyst ratings and price targets from References 5, 11, and 23 show mixed signals. Bernstein reduced the price target to $337 from $377, while Mizuho lowered it to $300 from $350. However, both maintained an "Outperform" rating. Argus mentioned rising medical costs and lowered EPS estimates. These mixed signals suggest uncertainty among analysts, but the price targets are still above the current stock price, which might indicate some upside potential if the stock recovers. The user's profile indicates a focus on short-term investments and technical analysis. They are looking for a quick return, so the high volatility and bearish trend might be concerning. However, the upcoming earnings on July 29 have already passed, so the next key event would be the next earnings report, which is scheduled for October 20, 2025, as per Reference 21. But since the user is asking for next week (August 11-17, 2025), there are no upcoming events mentioned in Reference 24, so the focus remains on the current technical and fundamental data. Putting it all together, the technical indicators lean bearish with a high probability of continuation. The recent earnings report was negative, leading to a price drop. The support and resistance levels suggest potential selling pressure if the stock hits the resistance levels. The trend similarity forecast also points to a bearish outlook with a significant expected loss. However, the analyst price targets are higher than the current price, which might offer some upside if the stock recovers. But given the short-term focus and the bearish technicals, the risk of a price decline is high. ``` ### 🌟 **Conclusion** 🌟 **UnitedHealth Group (UNH)** is projected to face **short-term downward pressure** over the next week (August 11–17, 2025), driven by bearish technical trends, recent earnings disappointments, and mixed analyst sentiment. However, there are **limited upside opportunities** if the stock recovers from its oversold levels. Below is a detailed breakdown of the key factors influencing UNH’s price outlook: --- ### 📊 **Key Data & Analysis** 📊 #### 1. **Earnings Impact** - **Earnings Release Date**: July 29, 2025 (already passed). - **Outcome**: UNH stock dropped **3.93%** pre-market due to **lowered 2025 earnings guidance** ($16 EPS vs. $20.91 analyst consensus) and **rising medical costs** (especially in Medicare Advantage plans). - **Current Price**: $250.89 (as of August 8, 2025) . #### 2. **Technical Indicators** | Metric | Data | |----------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------| | **Current Trend** | Bearish (28-day duration, 30% continuation probability) . | | **Support/Resistance** | Current price ($250.89) between **narrow resistance ($240.41–$247.56)** . | | **Bullish vs. Bearish** | Classified as **bearish** (August 8, 2025) . | #### 3. **Trend Similarity Forecast** - **Mean Forecast Price** (August 11, 2025): **$242.53**. - **Confidence Intervals**: - 34% CI: $235.51–$249.54. - 68% CI: $228.5–$249.54. - **Expected Max Loss**: **-31.73%** (bearish trend). #### 4. **Analyst Sentiment** - **Price Targets**: - Bernstein: $337 (down from $377). - Mizuho: $300 (down from $350). - Argus: Focus on **rising medical costs** and **lowered EPS estimates**. - **Consensus**: Mixed (6 Buy, 2 Neutral, 1 Sell) . --- ### 📉 **Risks & Opportunities** 📉 #### **Risks** 1. **Bearish Continuation**: High probability (30%) of continued downward pressure . 2. **Earnings Uncertainty**: 2025 EPS guidance cut to $16, with no clarity on 2026 recovery . 3. **Regulatory Headwinds**: Ongoing federal investigations and leadership transitions . #### **Opportunities** 1. **Oversold Recovery**: Current price ($250.89) near **narrow resistance** ($240.41–$247.56) . 2. **Analyst Upside**: Price targets ($300–$337) suggest **20%–35% upside** if fundamentals improve . --- ### 📊 **Final Forecast** 📊 | Metric | Projection (August 11–17, 2025) | |----------------------------|------------------------------------| | **Price Range** | $228.5–$249.54 (68% CI) . | | **Most Likely Price** | $242.53 (mean forecast) . | | **Risk/Reward** | **Bearish bias** (31.73% max loss vs. 15.74% max gain) . | --- ### 🚨 **Key Takeaway** 🚨 UNH faces **high short-term risk** due to bearish technicals and recent earnings disappointments. However, **oversold levels** and **analyst price targets** offer limited upside potential. For **short-term traders**, consider **caution** and **tight stop-loss** orders. For **long-term investors**, wait for clearer signals post-earnings (next Q3 release: October 20, 2025) .