How did UI's Q3 2025 EPS forecast compare to past trends?

Ubiquiti Inc.'s (NYSE: UI) Q3 2025 EPS forecast of $1.58 reflects a decline from the actual Q3 2024 EPS of $1.88, representing a 16.5% decrease year-over-year. This decline is consistent with the overall trend of decreasing EPS estimates for Ubiquiti, which has been revised downward for both Q1 and Q2 2025, indicating a challenging financial outlook for the company in the near term.

1. Comparison to Q1 2025 EPS Forecast:
   • The Q1 2025 EPS estimate of $1.50 is lower than the actual Q4 2024 EPS of $1.74, indicating a 13.2% decrease quarter-over-quarter.
   • This decline suggests that Ubiquiti's performance may be weakening further, as the EPS had already decreased from the previous quarter's estimate of $1.62.
2. Comparison to Q2 2025 EPS Forecast:
   • The Q2 2025 EPS forecast of $1.41 is significantly lower than the actual Q2 2024 EPS of $1.88, representing a 25.3% decrease year-over-year.
   • This is the most significant decrease compared to the previous quarter's EPS, indicating a sharp decline in profitability in the first half of 2025.
3. Overall Trend and Future Outlook:
   • The consistent downward revision of EPS estimates for Ubiquiti suggests that the company is facing significant challenges, possibly related to market conditions, competitive pressures, or internal factors.
   • The forecast for FY2026 EPS of $6.78 indicates a potential recovery or stabilization in earnings, but this is still below the FY2024 EPS of $7.16.
   • The wide range of estimates for FY2026 EPS, from $6.36 to $6.78, reflects the uncertainty among analysts regarding the company's future performance.

In conclusion, Ubiquiti's Q3 2025 EPS forecast of $1.58 is in line with a broader trend of declining EPS estimates, indicating a challenging period for the company. The significant year-over-year decreases in EPS highlight the need for Ubiquiti to address the underlying issues affecting its financial performance.