Is UBER's Q1 2025 EPS forecast too conservative?

Uber's Q1 2025 EPS forecast does not appear too conservative. Here's why:

1. Conservative Forecast: The EPS forecast for Q1 2025 is $0.51, which represents a significant year-over-year increase of 259.38% compared to the same quarter of the previous year.

2. Strong Financial Performance: Uber has demonstrated robust financial performance in recent quarters. For instance, in Q4 2024, the company reported an income from operations of $770 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $1.8 billion, up 44% year-over-year. In Q3 2024, Uber achieved over $1 billion in GAAP operating income for the first time.
3. Growth Trends: Uber's gross bookings grew by 18% year-over-year in Q4 2024, reaching $44.2 billion. Trips increased by 18% year-over-year to 3.1 billion, averaging approximately 33 million trips per day. These growth trends indicate a strong demand for Uber's services.
4. Market Position: Uber's market position continues to strengthen, with operations in 70 countries and 10,000 cities. The company has also made notable strides in improving its financial health, reflecting its robust market position.
5. Analyst Confidence: Despite the conservative forecast, analysts remain optimistic about Uber's future. KGI Securities, for instance, downgraded Uber from Outperform to Neutral, but the average one-year price target suggests a 13.10% upside. This indicates that while some analysts may be cautious, others still see potential for growth.

In conclusion, Uber's Q1 2025 EPS forecast is not overly conservative given the company's recent financial performance, growth trends, and analyst confidence. The forecast likely reflects a prudent estimate of Uber's earnings potential for the period.