Can TRP sustain its earnings momentum into 2024?

**TC Energy's (TRP) earnings momentum faces significant challenges in sustaining into 2024**, as evidenced by the following points:

1. **Recent Performance**: TC Energy's net income and total revenue have shown declines. The company reported a net income of $820.83 million and total revenue of $944.44 million, with a decrease of 32.9% and 20.53%, respectively, compared to the same period last year. This decline in earnings and revenue growth indicates a weakening momentum.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income YoY|Total Revenue YoY|Diluted EPS YoY|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|TRP|TRP.N|TC Energy|2024 Q1|3.5970583915287464|7.899682357475807|-10.177137233200988|169|
|TRP|TRP.N|TC Energy|2024 Q2|298.2247524907975|3.134914407362812|274.70037905710484|169|
|TRP|TRP.N|TC Energy|2024 Q3|1056.0304777079557|3.8135220622040737|838.1509825014085|169|
|TRP|TRP.N|TC Energy|2024 Q4|-32.90005196179271|-20.531832452196987||169|

2. **Analyst Ratings and Targets**: The consensus rating for TC Energy is "Neutral" with an average analyst price target of $73.25, which suggests a cautious outlook from analysts. This neutral rating and the target price significantly higher than the current price indicate that analysts do not expect a strong earnings rebound in the near term.

3. **Market Conditions**: The oil, gas, and consumable fuels industry is subject to volatile market conditions, which can impact TC Energy's earnings. The company's leverage is expected to remain high, affecting financial flexibility, and the growth forecast is slightly slower compared to peers. These factors could hinder the company's ability to sustain earnings momentum.
4. **Dividend Yield**: TC Energy offers a dividend yield of 4.88%, which is attractive for income-focused investors. However, the high dividend yield can be a double-edged sword, as it may indicate a higher debt level or lower growth prospects, which could affect the company's ability to sustain earnings momentum.
5. **Strategic Moves**: TC Energy has announced a strategic spin-off of its South Bow assets, which could be a positive sign for the company's long-term prospects. However, the impact of this move on short-term earnings is uncertain and may not immediately reverse the trend of declining earnings.
6. **Earnings Estimates**: Various earnings estimates for Q1 and Q3 2024 have been revised downward or remain unchanged, indicating a lack of confidence in a strong earnings recovery in the immediate future.

In conclusion, while TC Energy's strategic moves and dividend yield are positive aspects, the overall outlook from recent performance, analyst ratings, and earnings estimates suggest that sustaining earnings momentum into 2024 will be challenging. The company's focus on deleveraging and managing market conditions will be crucial in determining its future earnings trajectory.