What trends are visible in CSCO's past five quarters?

Cisco Systems (CSCO) has demonstrated several notable trends over the past five quarters:

1. Revenue Trends: Cisco's total revenue has shown a seasonal pattern with a peak in the third quarter of fiscal year 2024, followed by a decline in the fourth quarter. The third quarter revenue of $14.57 billion in Q3 FY2024 was the highest compared to other quarters, while the fourth quarter revenue of $13.84 billion in Q4 FY2024 was the second highest. This indicates a strong sales performance during the company's traditional peak sales season, which may be influenced by factors such as business cycles, market demand, and product mix.

2. Net Income Trends: The net income of Cisco has shown a general upward trend over the past five quarters, with some fluctuations. The net income was $3.64 billion in Q3 FY2023, $2.71 billion in Q4 FY2023, $2.63 billion in Q1 FY2024, $2.16 billion in Q2 FY2024, and $1.89 billion in Q3 FY2024. This suggests that while the company has experienced some fluctuations in profitability, it has generally been improving over the past year.

3. Earnings Performance: Cisco has consistently surpassed consensus EPS estimates over the past four quarters, with an earnings surprise of 4.60% in Q1 FY2025 and 3.30% in Q2 FY2025. This indicates strong earnings performance and suggests that the company's management is effectively executing strategic initiatives to drive profitability.
4. Market Outperformance: Despite underperforming the market so far this year, Cisco's stock has shown positive momentum, with a 16.2% gain since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 25.5%. This suggests that while the stock may not have kept up with broader market gains, it has still seen significant appreciation and could be considered a strong performer within its industry.
5. Strategic Initiatives: Cisco's strategic initiatives, such as the enhancement of its crisis response capabilities and investment in cybersecurity solutions, may be contributing to the company's financial performance and reputation. These initiatives could potentially open new revenue streams and enhance the company's competitive position in the market.

In conclusion, Cisco Systems has shown a strong revenue peak in the third quarter of fiscal year 2024, consistent net income improvement, and consistent earnings outperformance over the past four quarters. The company's strategic initiatives may also be contributing to its positive market performance.