What trends can be seen in LLY's earnings surprises over 2024?

Eli Lilly's (LLY) earnings surprises over 2024 reveal a company that has experienced both positive and negative deviations from expected earnings and revenue, with a notable decline in revenue surprise in Q4.

1. **Positive EPS Surprise in Q4**: The EPS surprise for LLY in Q4 2024 was $0.02, which indicates that the company's actual EPS for the period was higher than expected. This suggests a strong performance in terms of profitability, which could be attributed to the company's successful product pipeline and market demand for its drugs.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Revenue Surprise|EPS Surprise|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|LLY|LLY.N|Eli Lilly|2024 Q1|-1.52E8|0.12|169|
|LLY|LLY.N|Eli Lilly|2024 Q2|1.32E9|1.18|169|
|LLY|LLY.N|Eli Lilly|2024 Q3|-6.61E8|-0.27|169|
|LLY|LLY.N|Eli Lilly|2024 Q4|-2.5E8|0.02|169|

2. **Negative Revenue Surprise in Q4**: However, the revenue surprise for LLY in Q4 2024 was a significant -$250 million. This indicates that the company's actual revenue for the period was below expectations. This shortfall could be due to various factors, including market conditions, competitive dynamics, or operational efficiencies.
3. **Overall Financial Performance**: Despite the negative revenue surprise, LLY's total sales for the year across all its drugs amounted to $45 billion. The company projects that sales in 2025 will reach between $58 billion and $61 billion, suggesting a positive outlook for the business.
4. **CEO Compensation**: LLY's CEO, David Ricks, received a total compensation of $29.2 million in 2024, a 10% increase from the previous year. This rise in executive compensation reflects the company's strong financial performance and Ricks' contribution to delivering internal targets and advancing the pipeline of treatments.

In conclusion, LLY's earnings trends over 2024 show a company that has achieved positive EPS surprises, albeit with a substantial negative revenue surprise in Q4. The positive EPS surprise could be indicative of effective cost management or strong operational performance, while the negative revenue surprise may warrant a closer look at the company's sales trends and market conditions. The overall financial performance and the significant increase in CEO compensation highlight the company's confidence in its growth prospects despite the revenue shortfall.