Will THTX's Q1 2024 earnings beat forecasts?

**Theratechnologies' Q1 2024 earnings are unlikely to beat forecasts based on current estimates and past performance.** Here's why:

1. **Analyst Expectations**: Analysts estimate an EPS of -$0.24 for Q1 2024. This suggests a negative earnings outlook, which Theratechnologies would need to surpass to beat forecasts.
2. **Historical Performance**: Theratechnologies has a history of missing earnings expectations. For instance, in the previous quarter, the company beat EPS by $0.26, but this was followed by a significant price increase of 22.86%. This implies that even a slight positive variance from the expected EPS could lead to a substantial price movement.

3. **Recent Trends**: While Theratechnologies has shown positive momentum with a net profit of $3 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $7.2 million in Q3 2024, the company's revenue growth has been modest, and it has not yet reached the level of the previous quarter. This suggests that sustaining the momentum into Q1 2024 could be challenging.
4. **Market Sentiment**: Despite the positive results in Q3 2024, the company's shares are down 1.8% from a week ago, indicating a cautious market sentiment. This sentiment may persist until the company demonstrates consistent revenue growth and profitability.
5. **Full-Year Outlook**: The full-year 2024 revenue guidance is set at $87-$90 million, with a positive adjusted EBITDA of $13-$15 million. This guidance does not indicate a strong surge in earnings for the first quarter, which is typically when companies have the highest earnings due to the recognition of annual revenues.

In conclusion, while Theratechnologies has shown some positive signs in its recent financial performance, the odds are against the company's Q1 2024 earnings surpassing analyst forecasts. The company's struggle to meet revenue expectations and the recent decline in market sentiment suggest that beating earnings may require more than a slight improvement from the previous quarter's performance.