The leg is 8/16 195 call and a 123 put


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Thank you for providing the details of your UPS 123/195 strangle trade. The likelihood of profit for this trade cannot be determined with a specific percentage based on the current market price of UPS stock at $125.98 alone.
- Strangle Components: The strangle consists of a put option with a strike price of $123 and a call option with a strike price of $195. The current market price of $125.98 falls between these strike prices, which can indicate a neutral or slightly favorable position.
- Intrinsic Values: The intrinsic value of the put option is $125.98 - $123 = $2.98, and the intrinsic value of the call option is $195 - $125.98 = $69.021. This means that the put option is slightly in-the-money and the call option is significantly out-of-the-money.
- Time Values: The time values of the options depend on the volatility of the stock and the expected movement of the stock price by expiration, which were not provided. Higher volatility generally leads to a higher time value, but the direction and magnitude of the expected price movement are also important.
- Expected Stock Price Movement: Without information on the expected movement of the stock price by expiration, it's impossible to determine the likelihood of the options' profit.
To better assess the likelihood of profit, you should consider these factors and assess the risk-reward profile of the trade. You can use tools like option pricing models or seek advice from a financial professional to gauge the potential outcomes. Monitoring the stock price and market conditions leading up to expiration can also provide valuable insights.
UPS Trend
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UPS 8/16 123 put option price
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