🏁 Conclusion
CoreWeave (CRWV) is still a genuine high-growth AI-infrastructure story, but after a +281 % surge from its June IPO it now trades around 8–9 × forward sales while burning cash and facing an autumn insider-unlock. Locking in part of the gain and keeping a “house-money” core strikes the best balance between upside participation and risk control. 📡🚀
1. Quick fundamentals check
| Latest reported (Q1-25) |
Figure |
YoY growth |
Comments |
| Revenue |
$981.6 m |
+746 % |
Cloud GPU capacity sold-out through mid-20261 |
| Net income |
–$314.6 m |
N/A |
Heavy CapEx for new data-centres |
| Market cap |
$32.9 bn |
– |
Implied ~8.4 × annualised sales |
| Cash on hand |
$2.1 bn (post-IPO) |
– |
Ample but CapEx-hungry |
| IPO date / price |
6 Jun 2025 @ $41 |
– |
You’re up ~281 % |
Take-away: Growth is spectacular, but unprofitable, and valuation has jumped into the upper quartile of software-infra peers.
2. Price action & liquidity
• Momentum cooled: from an intraday high of $191 on 24 Jun to ~$156 now (–18 %).
• 10-day EMA ≈ $152; 38 % Fibonacci retrace ≈ $138—these are natural “buy-the-dip” zones if the trend resumes.
• Public float ≈ 12 m shares (only ~15 % of total). The 180-day lock-up expires 4 Dec 2025—20–25 m insider shares could hit the tape then.
3. Valuation versus hot-AI comps
| Company |
FY-26E Sales Growth |
EV/Sales (NTM) |
Profit status |
| CRWV |
88 % |
8.7× |
Loss |
| SNOW |
31 % |
10.2× |
Near break-even |
| NET |
27 % |
9.3× |
Loss |
| SMCI |
22 % |
3.6× |
Profitable, hardware |
CoreWeave’s multiple is not the richest in AI land, but the gap to profitable peers like Supermicro shows how much execution is already priced in.
4. Near-term catalyst map
Bullish
- NVIDIA H200 cluster deployment on schedule (Q3).
- New mega-contract with a Big-Tech LLM builder (rumoured).
- No Fed rate cut → high GPU leasing prices persist.
Bearish
- December insider unlock.
- Potential GPU supply easing in 2026 → unit pricing pressure.
- Any slip in data-centre build-out (permitting, power) = headline risk.
5. Game-plan ideas
| Goal |
Suggested move |
Why |
| De-risk windfall |
Sell 30–50 % now or on pop >$175 |
Converts big paper gain, dodges unlock risk |
| Stay exposed |
Keep remainder w/ 20 % trailing stop |
Ride secular AI theme with “free roll” |
| Add more |
Only on decisive close above $175 or pull-back to $138-145 support |
Avoids buying mid-range chop |
| Long-term hold |
Re-evaluate after Q3 earnings (early Nov) + lock-up |
Let fundamentals guide, not hype |
6. Probability “crystal ball” (12 m)
| Scenario |
Odds |
Target band |
Driver |
| Base: growth cools to 70 %, break-even 2027 |
50 % |
$135–200 |
Normal multiple compression |
| Bull: repeat hyper-growth, margin inflects |
30 % |
$200–260 |
New Tier-1 contracts, high GPU prices |
| Bear: supply glut, dilution post unlock |
20 % |
$90–120 |
Pricing pressure + stock issuance |
🎉 You’re three-for-three on sky-rocketing IPO picks—nicely done!
The discipline now is to protect those gains while giving your winners room to run. Trimming into strength, setting smart stops, and revisiting after the December unlock will keep the odds in your favour. Ping me anytime you want a fresh read. Happy trading! 🌟📈
1: FinQuery snapshot for CRWV, 2025-07-01.
7/1/2025 08:40pm
