Taiwan government says US tariff 20% temporary? will it effect after Aug 7?

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle this question. The user is asking if the 20% US tariff on Taiwan is temporary and how it will affect things after August 7, 2025. First, I need to check the references provided. 

Looking at the references, there are several articles from 2025-07-31 and 2025-08-01. The key points are that Taiwan's government, including President Lai Ching-te, has stated that the 20% tariff is temporary and they're negotiating for a lower rate. The tariffs were imposed under Trump's executive order, and there's a Section 232 probe ongoing for semiconductors. The probe results are expected around August 15, which could lead to further adjustments. 

The user is interested in TSMC, so I should focus on how this affects the company. From the references, TSMC is investing heavily in the US, like the Arizona fabs, which might mitigate some tariff impacts. Also, the tariffs are part of a broader trade strategy, and Taiwan's trade deficit with the US is significant. 

I need to structure the answer with a conclusion first, then detailed analysis. The conclusion should state that the 20% tariff is temporary and outline the potential outcomes. The analysis should cover the current situation, the impact on TSMC, mitigation strategies, and the long-term outlook. 

Also, the user profile mentions interest in TSMC's stock, so including stock price data and analyst targets would be relevant. The references mention a slight decline in TSMC's stock price after the announcement, and some analyst price targets. 

I should make sure to cite the references properly, using the exact numbers provided. For example, the 20% tariff is temporary , the Section 232 probe results are expected around August 15 , and TSMC's stock price reaction . 

I need to avoid any unsupported claims and stick strictly to the provided data. Also, the answer should be in English, use markdown tables where possible, and include the necessary visualizations for the queries mentioned. 

Let me organize the information: start with the conclusion, then break down the analysis into sections like Current Tariff Status, Impact on TSMC, Mitigation Strategies, Risks, and Long-Term Outlook. Each section should have relevant data from the references, properly cited. 

Make sure to highlight that while the 20% tariff is temporary, the actual impact depends on the Section 232 probe results and ongoing negotiations. TSMC's investments in the US and their position in the AI chip market are key mitigating factors. 

Also, check if there are any analyst ratings or price targets post-August 1, but the references show no results for that query . So, I can mention that as a point of uncertainty. 

Finally, ensure the answer flows logically, starts with a clear conclusion, and each section builds on the previous one, providing a comprehensive view for the user.

### 🌟 **Conclusion**
The 20% U.S. tariff on Taiwanese imports, effective August 7, 2025, is **temporary** according to the Taiwan government, which is actively negotiating for a lower rate. The outcome of the U.S. Section 232 probe (expected by August 15) will determine the final tariff structure for semiconductors and related tech products. For TSMC (TSM), the immediate impact is **manageable** due to its U.S. expansion plans and AI-driven revenue growth, but **long-term risks** remain tied to trade uncertainties and supply chain adjustments.

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### 📊 **Current Tariff Status & Negotiations**
| Key Point | Details | Implication |
|-----------|---------|-------------|
| **Tariff Rate** | 20% on non-exempt Taiwanese goods | Affects ~25% of Taiwan’s exports to the U.S. |
| **Temporary Nature** | Taiwan government vows to reduce the rate further | Final agreement pending Section 232 probe results (August 15) |
| **Exemptions** | Semiconductors, AI chips under national security review | TSMC’s core products (2nm/3nm nodes) may face separate tariffs |

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### 🛠️ **Impact on TSMC**
#### **Short-Term Risks**
- **Stock Price Volatility**: TSMC dropped -0.53% on August 1, 2025, reflecting market uncertainty .
- **Gross Margin Pressure**: 2-4% annual dilution from U.S. fabs costs .
- **Supply Chain Delays**: Potential delays in AI chip shipments to U.S. customers (NVIDIA, Apple) .

#### **Long-Term Mitigation**
- **U.S. Expansion**: $100 billion investment in Arizona fabs to reduce tariff exposure .
- **AI Growth**: 60% of revenue tied to AI/HPC chips, with 30%+ CAGR through 2026 .
- **Customer Diversification**: 74% of wafer revenue from advanced nodes (2nm/3nm) .

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### 📉 **Key Risks to Monitor**
1. **Section 232 Probe**: Results (August 15) could impose additional tariffs on semiconductors .
2. **Trade Talks**: U.S.-Taiwan negotiations for a reciprocal tariff agreement .
3. **Competition**: Intel’s U.S. fabs (via TSMC partnership) and Samsung’s global expansion .

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### 🚀 **Long-Term Outlook**
- **AI Dominance**: TSMC’s N2/A16 technologies (2025H2 launch) to drive 40% CAGR in AI accelerator demand .
- **Tariff Reduction**: Taiwan expects a lower rate post-Section 232 probe .
- **Valuation**: P/E of 31 vs. peers (NVIDIA: 32x, AMD: 28x) .

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### 🎯 **Key Takeaways**
- **Buy Signal**: TSMC’s AI leadership and U.S. investments justify a **$250-260 price target** .
- **Hold for Long-Term**: Tariffs are a near-term headwind but unlikely to derail TSMC’s dominance in semiconductors.
- **Watch for Catalysts**: Section 232 probe results (August 15) and U.S.-Taiwan trade talks .