How does STRL's 2025 Q1 EPS forecast compare to past trends?

Sterling Construction's (STRL) 2025 Q1 EPS forecast of $1.46 compares favorably to its past trends, as evidenced by the following analysis:

1. **Consistent Growth Trend**: Sterling has demonstrated a strong growth trajectory in its EPS. The company's EPS grew at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45.1% over the past five years, which is a testament to its profitability trend.
2. **Recent Performance**: In the fourth quarter of 2024, Sterling's adjusted EPS was $1.46, which surpassed market expectations by $0.13. This indicates a strong performance in the immediate term, setting a positive tone for the upcoming quarter.
3. **Market Expectations**: The EPS forecast for 2025 Q1 is in line with the company's historical performance. The estimated EPS of $1.46 for the quarter is slightly higher than the EPS of $1.29 anticipated by the market. This suggests that analysts are cautiously optimistic about Sterling's future earnings.
4. **Company Performance**: Sterling's revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 was $498.8 million, which fell short of the forecasted $530.2 million. However, the company's adjusted EBITDA increased by 11%, and its cash flows from operations totaled $497.1 million. These figures imply that while revenue may not have met expectations, the company's profitability and cash flow generation are strong.
5. **Long-Term Outlook**: Sterling's CEO expressed confidence in the company's performance, stating that 2024 was another record year for the company, with an increase in adjusted net income and gross margins exceeding expectations. This positive outlook, combined with the company's historical EPS growth trend, suggests that the 2025 Q1 EPS forecast is well-supported.

In conclusion, Sterling's 2025 Q1 EPS forecast of $1.46 is in line with the company's strong historical EPS growth trend and recent performance, indicating a positive outlook for the upcoming quarter.