6/5/2025 07:02am
Conclusion — Bitcoin is coiling for a decisive move.
The daily chart shows prices compressing beneath a cluster of short-term moving averages while momentum has already shifted into oversold territory. Expect a breakout (up or down) within the next 1-3 weeks; traders should position with clear triggers and tight risk controls.
1. What the chart is telling us
| Layer | Observation | Short-term Bias |
|---|---|---|
| Price vs. MAs | Candles are sandwiched between the 5-, 10- and 20-day MAs (all gently falling). | Mildly bearish until reclaimed |
| Bollinger Bands | Bands have narrowed sharply since mid-May → volatility squeeze. | Imminent range expansion |
| RSI (14) | Hovering in the mid-30s after briefly dipping below 30. | Positive divergence = rebound potential |
| MACD | Histogram negative, but flattening; signal lines converging. | Momentum no longer accelerating downward |
| Volume | Declining since the May selloff. | “Spring-loading” effect: low-volume bases often precede large moves |
2. Trade set-ups you can consider
| Strategy | Trigger | Initial Target | Invalidation / Stop |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breakout LONG | Daily close above the upper Bollinger Band and 50-day MA (~US$69 500) | $72 800 then $75 600 | Close back inside the band or below $67 400 |
| Mean-reversion LONG | Intraday wash into lower band/support zone $65 000–$66 000 with RSI < 30 | Return to mid-band (~$68 500) | Daily close < $64 000 |
| Breakdown SHORT | Daily close below $64 000 on >150 % average volume | $61 200 then $58 300 | Close back above $65 500 |
Risk-management tips
• Size positions so that a full stop-out costs ≤ 1 % of total portfolio value.
• If you enter before the breakout signal is confirmed, trail half size with a very tight stop to avoid whipsaw.
• Watch the U.S. macro calendar (CPI on 6/12, FOMC on 6/18); these events often provide the catalyst that releases a volatility squeeze.
3. How this fits your style
You prefer short-to-medium-term, pattern-driven trades. The current squeeze is a textbook “volatility contraction” set-up: once price escapes the band pinch, follow-through tends to be swift. Use the levels above to trade the move rather than pre-guess its direction, and you’ll keep emotions (and unnecessary losses) in check.
Good luck, and feel free to ask for an intraday chart or deeper indicator dive if you need it!
