Can SPOT maintain its EPS growth trend into next year?


Aime
Spotify's EPS growth trend appears promising for the near future, considering the following points:
- Consistent Revenue Growth: Spotify has demonstrated robust revenue growth, with a 18.52% increase over the last twelve months1. Analysts forecast annual increases between 13% and 17% from 2023 to 20261. This consistent growth trajectory suggests a strong business model and market demand.
- Margin Improvements: The company's operating margin is projected to increase from -3.0% to 8.4% over the same period1. Gross margin improved by 555 bps to 32.2%2, indicating better cost management and profitability.
- Subscriber Growth: Spotify has seen significant growth in its subscriber base, with 10 million premium subscribers added in the December quarter, surpassing expectations3. Premium subscribers grew 11% year-over-year to 263 million2.
- Price Increase Potential: Spotify has successfully raised prices across its worldwide markets, reflecting the value proposition from new features and expansion into formats like podcasts and audiobooks4. The average revenue per user (ARPU) is up 11% year over year on a constant currency basis4.
- Financial Health: Spotify holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, and its cash flows sufficiently cover interest payments, demonstrating solid financial health1. The company's return on capital employed is expected to improve from -5.2% in 2023 to 24.9% in 20241.
- Strategic Partnerships: The company's strategic alliance with Warner Music Group is expected to strengthen commitments to artists and fans, potentially boosting investor confidence5. Integration of Spotify with Opera has expanded its reach, enhancing user engagement and brand visibility6.
- Analyst Optimism: Analysts maintain a bullish consensus with price targets ranging from $442 to $7597, indicating confidence in Spotify's growth potential.
However, it's important to note that Spotify faces challenges, such as competitive pressures in developing markets8 and late transition to programmatic advertising8. The company's ability to navigate these challenges and maintain its EPS growth trend will depend on its continued innovation, market adaptation, and strategic partnerships.
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