How might SPGI's 2025 EPS outlook change?

**S&P Global's 2025 EPS outlook is expected to improve.** Here's a detailed analysis:

1. **Analyst Expectations and Recent Performance**: Mizuho Securities has initiated coverage on S&P Global with an Outperform rating, setting a price target of $599. This indicates confidence in the company's future performance. S&P Global's stock has already shown a positive trend, with a recent increase of 4.9% following its better-than-expected Q4 earnings release.
2. **Financial Growth Projections**: The company's 2025 guidance calls for revenue growth of 5.0% to 7.0%. This suggests a positive outlook for the company's earnings, as revenue growth is a key driver of EPS. Additionally, S&P Global projects $6 billion in adjusted free cash flow for 2025, supported by 5%-7% revenue growth. This financial discipline and strategic investments are expected to support long-term growth and profitability.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income YoY|Total Revenue YoY|Diluted EPS YoY|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|SPGI|SPGI.N|S&P Global|2024 Q1|24.186046511627907|10.474683544303797|27.935222672064775|169|
|SPGI|SPGI.N|S&P Global|2024 Q2|88.69565217391305|14.446952595936793|101.87499999999999|169|
|SPGI|SPGI.N|S&P Global|2024 Q3|28.624078624078624|15.920881971465628|33.47639484978539|169|
|SPGI|SPGI.N|S&P Global|2024 Q4|50.15527950310559|13.959390862944163||169|

3. **Segmental Performance and Strategic Initiatives**: The Ratings segment, which generates nearly half of the company's operating profits, is expected to contribute to EPS growth due to strong incremental operating leverage and recent technological investments. The Indices, Commodities Insights, and Mobility divisions are also anticipated to contribute to margin expansion over time due to their unique, in-demand data assets and benchmarks.
4. **Market Position and Competitive Strengths**: S&P Global's strong competitive moat, consistent pricing power, and dominant market position in the financial data and stock exchanges industry are key factors behind the positive EPS outlook. The company's strategic acquisitions, global reach, and focus on innovation, including AI and ESG analytics, further strengthen its market position.
5. **Historical Performance and Safety Margin**: The company's historical EPS growth and the recent margin of safety calculations suggest that S&P Global is significantly overvalued based on the Discounted Earnings model, with a potential upside. This indicates that the company's EPS could have room to grow as the market revalues its intrinsic worth.

In conclusion, S&P Global's 2025 EPS outlook is likely to improve due to a combination of analyst confidence, financial growth projections, strategic segmental performance, competitive strengths, and historical performance indicators.