Should investors be concerned about MO's EPS volatility?
3/29/2025 01:31pm
**Investors should not be overly concerned about Altria Group's (MO) EPS volatility at this time.** Here's why:
1. **Low Weekly Volatility**: The weekly volatility in Altria Group's EPS is relatively low at 1.24%. This suggests that the short-term fluctuations in EPS are not significant enough to indicate a high level of risk.
|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Weekly Volatility|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|MO|MO.N|Altria Group|20240102|1.38842|169|
|MO|MO.N|Altria Group|20240103|1.442637|169|
|MO|MO.N|Altria Group|20240104|1.364156|169|
|MO|MO.N|Altria Group|20240105|1.3732|169|
|MO|MO.N|Altria Group|20240108|1.373163|169|
|MO|MO.N|Altria Group|20240109|1.280003|169|
|MO|MO.N|Altria Group|20240110|0.976261|169|
|MO|MO.N|Altria Group|20240111|1.141017|169|
|MO|MO.N|Altria Group|20240112|1.168431|169|
|MO|MO.N|Altria Group|20240116|1.185017|169|
2. **Stable Recent Performance**: The EPS for the latest report period ending on December 31, 2024, is $1.79, which indicates a stable earnings performance in the recent past.
|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Diluted EPS YoY|Diluted EPS|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|MO|MO.N|Altria Group|2024 Q1|20.999999999999996|1.21|169|
|MO|MO.N|Altria Group|2024 Q2|85.71428571428572|2.21|169|
|MO|MO.N|Altria Group|2024 Q3|9.836065573770501|1.34|169|
|MO|MO.N|Altria Group|2024 Q4|54.31034482758622|1.79|169|
3. **Implied Volatility**: Implied volatility, which reflects market expectations of future price movements, has been high for Altria Group's stock options. However, this does not necessarily correlate with EPS volatility. Instead, it suggests that investors are anticipating significant price movements, which could be due to factors other than EPS fluctuations.
4. **Long-Term Stability**: Altria Group has a Sharpe ratio of 0.19, which implies a reasonable return per unit of risk over the last three months. This indicates that the company's performance has been stable despite some volatility.
5. **Investor Attention and Analyst Sentiments**: Altria Group has been one of the most searched-for stocks recently, indicating investor interest despite volatility. Analysts have increased their earnings estimates for the current quarter, suggesting a positive outlook.
6. **Market Conditions**: The return of volatility to the market in 2025, as reported by Phillip Argue, Director of Investment Strategy, is a broader market phenomenon and not unique to Altria Group. This volatility may affect many stocks, including Altria, but it does not necessarily indicate specific risks for Altria's EPS.
In conclusion, while some volatility is inherent in any investment, the low EPS volatility and stable earnings performance of Altria Group, along with the company's steady historical performance and current analyst optimism, suggest that investors should not be unduly concerned about the volatility of its EPS at this time. However, investors should continue to monitor market conditions and company-specific factors that could influence future performance.