Symbols

Should I sell apld now

6/5/2025 07:45pm

Aime

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle this question: Should I sell APLD now? The user is a tech-savvy investor interested in US tech stocks like GOOGL, TSLA, etc., and they focus on technical analysis. They're risk-tolerant and looking for growth potential. So, I need to analyze APLD based on the provided data and their preferences.

First, let's look at the current stock price and technical indicators. From Reference 1, APLD closed at $12.85 on 2025-06-05 with a resistance level at $14.49 and support at $12.48. The stock dropped 3.02% that day. The MACD is 1.33, RSI is 87.62, KDJ is 88.82, and BOLL is 7.54 (Reference 2). The 5-day MA is $10.69, 10-day MA is $9.02, and 20-day MA is $7.54 (Reference 3). The RSI and KDJ are both above 80, indicating overbought conditions. However, the stock just surged due to the CoreWeave deal, so maybe the market is pricing that in.

Next, the fundamental data. The average price target from analysts is $11.36, which is below the current price of $12.85 (Reference 5). The consensus rating is "Strong Buy," but the price target is lower than the current price. That's a red flag. The company signed a $7B 15-year lease with CoreWeave (References 6-11, 13-19, 21-23, 25-27, 30-33, 35-39, 41-43). This deal is transformative, providing long-term revenue visibility. However, the company has struggled with profitability, as seen in their Q3 2025 results where they had a net loss (Reference 27, 29).

Looking at the recent news, APLD has surged due to the CoreWeave deal, with the stock price jumping 48% in one day (References 6, 8, 10, 13, 16, 18, 20, 22, 24, 28, 30-33, 35-39, 41-43). Analysts have raised price targets, but the stock is trading above the average target. The user is into technical analysis, so the overbought indicators might concern them. However, the stock is hitting new 52-week highs (Reference 18, 20, 23, 30-33, 35-39, 41-43), which could indicate a breakout.

The user's profile mentions they hold stocks despite cautioning overbought technicals, so they might be looking for confirmation whether to hold or sell. The key points here are the recent surge, overbought indicators, but also the fundamental strength from the CoreWeave deal. The stock is trading near the resistance level ($14.49), so if it breaks above, it could continue to rise. However, if it fails, a pullback is likely.

The user's strategy is medium to long-term, so they might be considering whether the recent rally is sustainable. The analyst consensus is still bullish, but the price target is below current levels. The company's transition to a REIT structure (Reference 43) could provide more stability, but there's still execution risk.

Putting it all together, the technicals suggest caution due to overbought conditions, but the fundamentals from the CoreWeave deal are strong. The user needs to balance short-term technical risks with long-term growth potential. If they're risk-tolerant and believe in the AI infrastructure play, holding might be better. But if they're concerned about the overbought state, taking some profit could be prudent.

Conclusion 🚨

Hold APLD for now, but monitor closely for potential pullback risks. The stock is trading near its 52-week high and shows overbought technicals, but the transformative CoreWeave deal provides long-term upside potential. Here’s the breakdown:

📊 Key Analysis

1. Technical Indicators

Metric	Value (2025-06-05)	Implication
Closing Price	$12.85	Near resistance level ($14.49) and support level ($12.48) ¹
RSI	87.62	Overbought (above 70) ²
KDJ	88.82	Overbought (above 80) ²
MACD	1.33	Bullish momentum, but RSI divergence possible ²
Bollinger Bands	7.54	Price near upper band (overbought) ²
Moving Averages	5-day: $10.69	Price above all short-term MAs (bullish) ³

Conclusion: APLD is technically overbought but shows strong upward momentum. A pullback to the 5-day MA ($10.69) could present a buying opportunity.

APLD Trend

2. Fundamental Catalysts

Metric	Data (2025-06-05)	Implication
CoreWeave Deal	$7B revenue	Game-changer for APLD’s AI infrastructure play ⁴⁵
Analyst Targets	Avg: $11.36	Below current price ($12.85), but consensus rating: Strong Buy ⁷
Market Cap	$1.26B	Small-cap with high volatility ⁸
Profitability	Q3 2025: -$0.16	Losses persist, but CoreWeave deal provides long-term visibility ⁹

Conclusion: The CoreWeave deal validates APLD’s AI infrastructure thesis, but short-term profitability remains a concern.

3. Risks & Opportunities

Risk	Opportunity
Overbought Techs	Potential pullback to $10.69 (5-day MA) ³
High Volatility	APLD surged +94% in 1 week (June 2–5) ¹⁰¹¹
Execution Risk	Transition to REIT structure and CoreWeave deal execution ¹²
AI Infrastructure	APLD is a key player in the $7B AI data center market ⁴⁵

🎯 Final Take

APLD is a high-risk, high-reward stock. The CoreWeave deal provides long-term upside, but the stock is technically overbought and faces short-term pullback risks. If you’re a risk-tolerant, long-term investor, hold for the AI infrastructure play. If you’re risk-averse, consider trimming your position to lock in gains.

Target Price Range: $10.69–$14.49 (5-day MA to resistance level).

Next Check: Monitor APLD’s price action near $14.49 (resistance) and $12.48 (support). A breakout above $14.49 would confirm bullish momentum.

Source:

1. APLD Closing Price, Resistance Level, Support Level