Symbols

Should I hold or sell him stock?

7/2/2025 02:09am

Aime

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle this question about whether to hold or sell Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) stock. The user is asking for a decision, so I need to provide a clear recommendation based on the data and analysis from the references provided.

First, I'll start by looking at the current stock price and recent performance. From the references, the closing price on July 1, 2025, is $47.96, which is down 3.79% from the previous day. The stock has also dropped 12.19% over the past month, underperforming both the Medical sector and the S&P 500. That's a bearish sign right there.

Next, the technical indicators are mixed. The stock is trading between a support level of $41.20 and a resistance level of $50.78. The 5-day moving average is $46.98, which is below the current price, suggesting some short-term bearish momentum. The MACD, RSI, and KDJ indicators from another stock (HE) don't directly apply here, but the Bollinger Bands for HIMS show a relatively tight range, indicating potential volatility. The short interest is 33.9% of the float, which is high and could lead to a short squeeze if the stock starts moving up, but the recent price drop might mean some short-term bearish pressure.

Looking at the financials, the P/E ratio is 79.76, which is quite high compared to the industry average. The P/S ratio is 6.02, which is reasonable, but the Price to Book ratio is 23.87, suggesting the company might be overvalued relative to its book value. The average price target from analysts is $38.90, which is below the current price, indicating a potential downside risk. The consensus rating is Neutral, with a mix of Hold, Buy, and Sell recommendations, but no strong consensus.

The company's recent news is dominated by the termination of the partnership with Novo Nordisk over allegations of deceptive marketing and illegal compounding. This has led to several class action lawsuits and regulatory scrutiny. The legal risks are significant and could impact the stock's performance. However, some analysts believe the company's core business remains strong, with growth in subscriptions and personalized health solutions.

The earnings guidance for 2025 is $2.3 to $2.4 billion in revenue, which is a 56-63% growth rate. The adjusted EBITDA target is $295-$335 million, which is a 13-14% margin. The company also has a long-term goal of $6.5 billion in revenue by 2030. These growth targets are ambitious but depend on the company's ability to navigate the current legal issues and maintain partnerships.

Considering all these factors, the stock has both upside potential from growth and a short squeeze, but significant risks from legal issues and high valuation. The mixed analyst sentiment and recent underperformance suggest caution. The user's profile shows interest in the NASDAQ Composite, which is a broader market index, but HIMS is on the NYSE. The user's short-term investment horizon might make HIMS a risky choice due to its volatility.

In conclusion, the recommendation leans towards Hold, as the stock has potential but also faces significant risks. The user should monitor the upcoming earnings report, legal developments, and any changes in the partnership situation closely before making a decision to buy or sell.

🚨 Conclusion 🚨

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) presents a Hold recommendation due to mixed momentum and high uncertainty. The stock has bullish potential from short squeeze risks and long-term growth prospects, but bearish pressures from legal risks, high valuation, and weak technicals dominate the near term. Investors should hold for now, with a close watch on upcoming earnings (Q2 2025) and legal resolutions.

📊 Analysis 📊

1. Current Market Position

Price: $47.96 (down 3.79% YoY, 12.19% MoM) ¹².
Short Interest: 33.9% of float shorted ³.
Valuation:
- P/E (TTM): 79.76 (vs. industry avg. 33.25) ⁴.
- P/S (TTM): 6.02 (vs. industry avg. 2.85) ⁴.
- Price Target: $38.90 (19.45% downside) ⁵.

Metric	Data (2025-07-01)
Closing Price	$47.96
Trading Volume	35.68M shares ¹
Float Percentage	33.9% shorted ³

2. Key Catalysts

Earnings: Q2 2025 results due on May 5, 2025. Analysts project $0.17 EPS (183.33% YoY growth) and $551.84M revenue (74.83% YoY growth) ⁶.
Legal Risks: Facing 3 active lawsuits over "deceptive marketing" of Wegovy knockoffs ⁷⁸.
Partnership Termination: Novo Nordisk ended collaboration due to "illegal mass compounding" ¹⁰¹¹.

3. Technical Indicators

Price Trend: Bearish (8 days) with 72% continuation probability ¹.
Support/Resistance:
- Support: $41.20 ¹.
- Resistance: $50.78 ¹.
- Bollinger Bands: Current price ($47.96) near lower band ($41.20) ¹².
Moving Averages:
- 5-Day MA: $46.98 ¹³.
- 10-Day MA: $50.44 ¹³.
- 20-Day MA: $53.19 ¹³.

Metric	Data (2025-07-01)
Current Trend	Bearish (8 days) ¹
Short Interest	33.9% of float ³
Price Forecast	Swing trend, Hold advice ²

4. Risks & Opportunities

Bullish:
- Short Squeeze: High short interest (33.9%) with recent bearish capitulation (12.19% MoM decline) ³.
- Growth Prospects: 2025 revenue guidance ($2.3–$2.4B, +56–63% YoY) ⁷.
Bearish:
- Legal Uncertainty: 3 active lawsuits over "deceptive marketing" ⁷⁸.
- Analyst Sentiment: Mixed ratings (11 Hold, 1 Buy, 2 Sell) ¹⁴.
- Valuation: Premium vs. industry (P/E: 79.76 vs. 33.25) ⁴.

Metric	Data (2025-07-01)
Legal Risk	3 active lawsuits ⁷⁸
Analyst Consensus	Hold (11/14 analysts) ¹⁴
Valuation	Premium vs. industry ⁴

📊 Conclusion 📊

HIMS is Hold due to mixed momentum and high uncertainty. The stock has bullish potential from short squeeze risks and long-term growth, but bearish pressures from legal risks and high valuation dominate the near term. Investors should hold for now, with a close watch on upcoming earnings and legal developments.

Final Outlook	Probability	Key Drivers
Bullish	30%	Short squeeze, earnings beat
Neutral	40%	Mixed analyst sentiment, high valuation
Bearish	30%	Legal risks, sector underperformance

Source:

1. HIM Closing Price, Resistance Level, Support Level