Should I hold or sell him stock?
7/2/2025 10:09am
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The deep research logic is organized as follows:
Okay, let's tackle this question about whether to hold or sell Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) stock. The user is asking for a decision, so I need to provide a clear recommendation based on the data and analysis from the references provided.
First, I'll start by looking at the current stock price and recent performance. From the references, the closing price on July 1, 2025, is $47.96, which is down 3.79% from the previous day. The stock has also dropped 12.19% over the past month, underperforming both the Medical sector and the S&P 500. That's a bearish sign right there.
Next, the technical indicators are mixed. The stock is trading between a support level of $41.20 and a resistance level of $50.78. The 5-day moving average is $46.98, which is below the current price, suggesting some short-term bearish momentum. The MACD, RSI, and KDJ indicators from another stock (HE) don't directly apply here, but the Bollinger Bands for HIMS show a relatively tight range, indicating potential volatility. The short interest is 33.9% of the float, which is high and could lead to a short squeeze if the stock starts moving up, but the recent price drop might mean some short-term bearish pressure.
Looking at the financials, the P/E ratio is 79.76, which is quite high compared to the industry average. The P/S ratio is 6.02, which is reasonable, but the Price to Book ratio is 23.87, suggesting the company might be overvalued relative to its book value. The average price target from analysts is $38.90, which is below the current price, indicating a potential downside risk. The consensus rating is Neutral, with a mix of Hold, Buy, and Sell recommendations, but no strong consensus.
The company's recent news is dominated by the termination of the partnership with Novo Nordisk over allegations of deceptive marketing and illegal compounding. This has led to several class action lawsuits and regulatory scrutiny. The legal risks are significant and could impact the stock's performance. However, some analysts believe the company's core business remains strong, with growth in subscriptions and personalized health solutions.
The earnings guidance for 2025 is $2.3 to $2.4 billion in revenue, which is a 56-63% growth rate. The adjusted EBITDA target is $295-$335 million, which is a 13-14% margin. The company also has a long-term goal of $6.5 billion in revenue by 2030. These growth targets are ambitious but depend on the company's ability to navigate the current legal issues and maintain partnerships.
Considering all these factors, the stock has both upside potential from growth and a short squeeze, but significant risks from legal issues and high valuation. The mixed analyst sentiment and recent underperformance suggest caution. The user's profile shows interest in the NASDAQ Composite, which is a broader market index, but HIMS is on the NYSE. The user's short-term investment horizon might make HIMS a risky choice due to its volatility.
In conclusion, the recommendation leans towards Hold, as the stock has potential but also faces significant risks. The user should monitor the upcoming earnings report, legal developments, and any changes in the partnership situation closely before making a decision to buy or sell.
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### 🚨 **Conclusion** 🚨
**Hims & Hers Health (HIMS)** presents a **Hold** recommendation due to **mixed momentum** and **high uncertainty**. The stock has **bullish potential** from **short squeeze risks** and **long-term growth prospects**, but **bearish pressures** from **legal risks**, **high valuation**, and **weak technicals** dominate the near term. Investors should **hold** for now, with a **close watch** on upcoming **earnings** (Q2 2025) and **legal resolutions**.
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### 📊 **Analysis** 📊
#### 1. **Current Market Position**
- **Price**: $47.96 (down 3.79% YoY, 12.19% MoM) .
- **Short Interest**: 33.9% of float shorted .
- **Valuation**:
- **P/E (TTM)**: 79.76 (vs. industry avg. 33.25) .
- **P/S (TTM)**: 6.02 (vs. industry avg. 2.85) .
- **Price Target**: $38.90 (19.45% downside) .
| Metric | Data (2025-07-01) |
|-----------------------|--------------------|
| Closing Price | $47.96 |
| Trading Volume | 35.68M shares |
| Float Percentage | 33.9% shorted |
#### 2. **Key Catalysts**
- **Earnings**: Q2 2025 results due on **May 5, 2025**. Analysts project **$0.17 EPS** (183.33% YoY growth) and **$551.84M revenue** (74.83% YoY growth) .
- **Legal Risks**: Facing **3 active lawsuits** over "deceptive marketing" of Wegovy knockoffs .
- **Partnership Termination**: Novo Nordisk ended collaboration due to "illegal mass compounding" .
#### 3. **Technical Indicators**
- **Price Trend**: **Bearish** (8 days) with **72% continuation probability** .
- **Support/Resistance**:
- **Support**: $41.20 .
- **Resistance**: $50.78 .
- **Bollinger Bands**: Current price ($47.96) near **lower band** ($41.20) .
- **Moving Averages**:
- **5-Day MA**: $46.98 .
- **10-Day MA**: $50.44 .
- **20-Day MA**: $53.19 .
| Metric | Data (2025-07-01) |
|-----------------------|--------------------|
| Current Trend | Bearish (8 days) |
| Short Interest | 33.9% of float |
| Price Forecast | Swing trend, Hold advice |
#### 4. **Risks & Opportunities**
- **Bullish**:
- **Short Squeeze**: High short interest (33.9%) with recent bearish capitulation (12.19% MoM decline) .
- **Growth Prospects**: 2025 revenue guidance ($2.3–$2.4B, +56–63% YoY) .
- **Bearish**:
- **Legal Uncertainty**: 3 active lawsuits over "deceptive marketing" .
- **Analyst Sentiment**: Mixed ratings (11 Hold, 1 Buy, 2 Sell) .
- **Valuation**: Premium vs. industry (P/E: 79.76 vs. 33.25) .
| Metric | Data (2025-07-01) |
|-----------------------|--------------------|
| Legal Risk | 3 active lawsuits |
| Analyst Consensus | Hold (11/14 analysts) |
| Valuation | Premium vs. industry |
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### 📊 **Conclusion** 📊
**HIMS** is **Hold** due to **mixed momentum** and **high uncertainty**. The stock has **bullish potential** from **short squeeze risks** and **long-term growth**, but **bearish pressures** from **legal risks** and **high valuation** dominate the near term. Investors should **hold** for now, with a **close watch** on upcoming **earnings** and **legal developments**.
| Final Outlook | Probability | Key Drivers |
|---------------|-------------|-------------|
| Bullish | 30% | Short squeeze, earnings beat |
| Neutral | 40% | Mixed analyst sentiment, high valuation |
| Bearish | 30% | Legal risks, sector underperformance |