should I buy more? Its right now at $2.34 also got DIVIDENDS .. which I love .. should I buy 2 ? So you think that the stock will go up to " $62.27 ??? " when should I buy more if , not yet ?
7/18/2025 06:15am
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The deep research logic is organized as follows:
Okay, let's tackle this question. The user is asking whether they should buy more of OXY (Occidental Petroleum) given that it's currently priced at $43.55 with a dividend yield they love. They're also interested in the $62.27 DCF target mentioned earlier.
First, I need to check the latest data from the references. The user provided several references, including analyst price targets, earnings reports, and technical analysis. Let's start by compiling the key points.
From the references, the average price target is $47.83 with a consensus rating of Neutral . However, some analysts like Mizuho have a higher target of $65 , while others like UBS have a lower target of $38 . The DCF valuation from Acquirer's Multiple suggests a target of $62.27 , which is significantly higher than the current price.
The user mentioned the stock is at $43.55 and loves the dividend. The dividend yield is around 2.13% , which is stable but not extremely high. The company has a 52-year dividend streak, which is a positive sign for income-focused investors.
Looking at the technicals, the stock has a strong sell signal in the short term . The price is near the Bollinger midline, with resistance at $46.44 and support at $42.05. The MACD is bearish, and the RSI is neutral. The upcoming Q2 earnings on August 6, 2025 , could be a catalyst.
Institutional activity shows mixed signals: some are buying, others are selling . The company's fundamentals include strong cash flows ($3B in Q1 2025) and efforts to reduce costs and debt . However, there are risks like production curtailments in the Gulf and high debt levels .
The user's profile mentions a preference for blue-chip stocks, stable dividends, and a long-term horizon. They also like the potential for growth. The DCF target of $62.27 offers a 41.8% upside, which is attractive. However, the technicals and near-term earnings risks (JPMorgan expects a miss ) might be concerning.
I need to balance the fundamental upside with the technical and near-term risks. The user is considering adding more shares now, but the stock might be undervalued. The DCF target is a long-term view, so the user should be prepared for volatility. The upcoming earnings could be a key event.
Also, the user's interest in dividend stocks aligns with OXY's stable dividend history. However, the yield isn't the highest, so they might compare it with other dividend-paying stocks in their portfolio.
In conclusion, the recommendation should be to hold for now, wait for the earnings report, and consider adding if the price consolidates above key levels or if the DCF gap narrows. The user should be cautious of the technical resistance and potential earnings miss but keep an eye on the long-term upside.
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### π **Conclusion** π
**Hold OXY (Occidental Petroleum)** for now. The stock presents a **mixed outlook** with **bullish fundamentals** (undervaluation, stable cash flows, dividend yield) but **bearish technicals** (negative momentum, weak price action). The upcoming **Q2 earnings report** (August 6, 2025) will be a critical catalyst. Hereβs the breakdown:
---
### π **Key Data & Analysis**
#### π **Technicals**
| Metric | Value | Implication |
|--------|-------|-------------|
| **Price** | $43.55 | Near **BOLL midline** ($43.95), **resistance** at $46.44, **support** at $42.05 |
| **MACD** | -0.36 | **Bearish momentum** (negative divergence) |
| **RSI** | 44.58 | **Neutral** (below 50, no extreme) |
| **KDJ** | 12.97 | **Overbought** (short-term bearish) |
| **MA5 vs. MA10** | $44.05 vs. $44.46 | **Bullish crossover** potential if price breaks above $44.46 |
#### π **Fundamentals**
| Metric | Value | Implication |
|--------|-------|-------------|
| **Price Target** | $48 (JPMorgan), $62.27 (DCF) | **Undervalued** (current price: $43.55) |
| **Earnings** | Q2 EPS: $0.24 (JPMorgan vs. Street: $0.34) | **Bearish near-term** (miss expected) |
| **Dividend** | 2.13% yield | **Stable income** (52-year streak) |
| **Debt** | $27.57B (2025Q1) | **Moderate leverage** (debt-to-equity: 0.90) |
#### π **Institutional Activity**
| Activity | Details | Implication |
|----------|---------|-------------|
| **Buy** | DDD Partners ($719K), Eos Management ($529K) | **Bullish** (new institutional interest) |
| **Sell** | Skylands Capital (-18.7%), Wealthfront (-2.3%) | **Bearish** (hedging risk) |
---
### π **Why Hold?**
1. **Valuation Edge**: DCF suggests **41.8% upside** to $62.27 .
2. **Stability**: 52-year dividend streak, strong cash flows ($3B+ Q1 2025) .
3. **Catalyst**: Q2 earnings (August 6) could trigger **bullish re-rating** if results beat estimates .
### π¨ **Why Not Buy More Yet?**
1. **Technical Weakness**: Negative MACD, low RSI/KDJ .
2. **Earnings Risk**: JPMorgan expects **underwhelming Q2** (EPS: $0.24 vs. $0.34 Street) .
3. **Competition**: High institutional ownership (88.7%), limited upside potential .
---
### π **Next Steps**
1. **Monitor Price Levels**: Break above $46.44 (resistance) or below $42.05 (support).
2. **Watch Earnings**: Q2 results (August 6) for **surprise potential**.
3. **Rebalance**: Consider adding if price consolidates above $44.46 (MA10) or if DCF gap narrows.
**Final Call**: **Hold** OXY for now. The stock is **undervalued fundamentally** but **technically fragile**. Stay patient and wait for clearer signals. π¦