Is SENS's Q1 2025 forecast achievable?

**Senseonics Holdings Inc. (SENS) faces a challenging road to achieving its Q1 2025 revenue forecast**, considering the following points:

1. **Revenue Projection and Patient Growth**: Senseonics anticipates a significant revenue increase, with a projected global net revenue of $34-38 million for 2025. This is driven by plans to double its global patient base. However, the company's recent performance shows a slight increase in quarterly revenue, from $8.0 million in Q4 2023 to $8.3 million in Q4 2024. The annual revenue for 2024 was $22.5 million, which is a modest increase from the previous year's $22.4 million. This growth trajectory suggests that achieving the higher end of the 2025 revenue forecast may be ambitious.

2. **Gross Margin Improvement**: Senseonics expects gross margins to improve throughout 2025, targeting between 25-30%. This is a positive indicator, but the company's gross profit for 2024 was $0.5 million, down from $3.1 million in 2023, primarily due to one-time charges related to the transition from Eversense E3 to Eversense 365. The improvement in gross margins may not be immediate, potentially impacting the achievement of the revenue forecast.
3. **Financial Position and Cash Burn**: Senseonics has a precarious financial position, with a projected cash burn of $50-60 million for 2025. Despite recent capital raises, the company's cash position is under pressure. This financial constraint could limit the company's ability to invest in growth initiatives necessary to achieve the revenue forecast.
4. **Market and Competitive Landscape**: The continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) market is competitive, with established players and new entrants. Senseonics' success in growing its patient base and revenue is dependent on its ability to differentiate its products and capture market share against competitors.

In conclusion, while Senseonics has made strides in growing its patient base and revenue, the forecasted revenue for Q1 2025 may be challenging to achieve. The company's financial position, the need for gross margin improvement, and the competitive nature of the market are factors that could influence whether the forecast is met.