How did RNR's Q4 earnings surprise impact its annual performance?

Renaissancere's (RNR) Q4 earnings surprise had a generally negative impact on its annual performance, with some positive effects over the longer term.

1. **Short-Term Impact on Annual Performance**:
- The Q4 EPS surprise of $1.57 was a significant positive event, but it had a limited impact on the annual EPS. This is because the annual EPS is influenced by earnings from previous quarters, not just the most recent quarter.
- The 3-Day win rate for the backtest was 33.33%, indicating that about one-third of the time, RNR's stock price increased in the short term following the earnings beat announcement.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Basic EPS|Percentage of EPS Surprise|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|RNR|RNR.N|Renaissancere|20240331|6.96|29.44|169|
|RNR|RNR.N|Renaissancere|20240630|9.44|15.98|169|
|RNR|RNR.N|Renaissancere|20240930|22.68|30.32|169|
|RNR|RNR.N|Renaissancere|20241231|-3.95|24.19|169|

2. **Long-Term Performance Considerations**:
- Over the longer term, RNR's annual EPS was more influenced by the overall performance of the company, including previous quarters' earnings and business developments.
- The 10-Day and 30-Day win rates for the backtest were 41.67% and 25.00%, respectively. This suggests that while there was some stability in the short term, the stock price was more likely to decline than increase in the medium to long term following the earnings beat announcement.
3. **Market Reaction and Analyst Expectations**:
- The market's reaction to RNR's Q4 earnings beat expectations was mixed. While the company's net premiums earned advanced 30.8% year-over-year, which was a positive sign, rising claims costs remained a challenge.
- Analysts expected a year-over-year decline of 5.3% in quarterly earnings, which RNR managed to beat with its reported EPS of $7.89 per share. However, the 30-Day return of -4.07% following the earnings announcement suggests that the market had concerns or reacted negatively to other aspects of the earnings report.
4. **Conclusion**:
- In conclusion, while RNR's Q4 earnings beat expectations led to a brief period of stock price appreciation, the impact on the annual EPS was relatively muted. The company's annual performance is influenced by a broader range of factors, including previous quarters' earnings and market conditions. The mixed short-term and medium-term performance highlights the complexity of earnings event impacts on stock prices and the importance of considering the broader market context.