What risks could impact FSLR's future EPS?

First Solar Inc. (FSLR) faces several risks that could impact its future EPS (Earnings Per Share):

1. **Manufacturing Issues and Warranty Charges**: FSLR has experienced manufacturing issues with its Series 7 modules, leading to significant warranty charges. For 2024, the company incurred a warranty charge of $56 million, with estimates of total charges ranging from $56 million to $100 million in the near future. These charges can directly reduce the net income of the company, thereby impacting EPS.
2. **International Market Uncertainties**: The company is facing near-term headwinds in its international production due to policy environment uncertainties in key markets. This could lead to reduced sales and revenue from international markets, affecting the company's overall profitability and, consequently, its EPS.
3. **Competitive Pricing Pressure**: There is a risk of competitors lowering module prices to or below their manufacturing costs, which could impact FSLR's pricing power and margins. If FSLR is unable to maintain its pricing strategy, it could experience reduced profitability, which would be reflected in lower EPS.
4. **IRA Overhang and Political Risks**: The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has provided government incentives for renewable energy, benefiting FSLR. However, there is a risk of policy changes or threats to the IRA, such as those posed by the second Trump administration, which could negatively impact the company's incentives and profitability. Political instability and policy changes can lead to unpredictable EPS outcomes.
5. **Balance Sheet Health**: While FSLR has a significant contracted backlog, there is a need to focus on maintaining a healthy balance sheet. The company's higher U.S. domestic exposure positions it less affected by export controls but requires careful management of financial obligations, including warranty charges, to ensure EPS stability.

In conclusion, FSLR's future EPS is at risk due to manufacturing issues, international market uncertainties, competitive pricing pressures, potential policy changes, and the need to maintain a strong balance sheet. These factors could lead to fluctuations in EPS, making it challenging for the company to achieve consistent earnings.